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Bitget Research: U.S. Government On-Chain BTC Transfer Sparks Market Panic, Risk Aversion Heightens Ahead of Fed Meeting

Aaron & Tommy
2024/07/30
Bitget Research: U.S. Government On-Chain BTC Transfer Sparks Market Panic, Risk Aversion Heightens Ahead of Fed Meeting
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

In the past 24 hours, BTC briefly surged past $70,000 before pulling back to around $66,500. Certain sectors and projects exhibited significant wealth effects, offering clear intraday trading opportunities. The highlights are as follows:
  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effect: Bitget ecosystem (BGB), POW sector, and BTC ecosystem.
  • Top searched tokens and topics: Layer 3, Compound, and Tapswap.
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Symbiotic and Usual.
Data collection time: July 30, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market continued its uptrend led by BTC, which briefly touched $70,000 before pulling back, currently oscillating around $66,500. Other cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL initially rose then fell, with notable intraday trading opportunities. The trading activity on Solana chain DEXes has notably outperformed Ethereum chain's, primarily driving the recent rise in the SOL/ETH exchange rate.
On the news front, yesterday the U.S. government executed blockchain transfers exceeding $2 billion in BTC, with 10,000 coins deposited into an institutional custody services. These transfers prompted a risk-averse downturn in the market immediately after, directly contributing to the drop in BTC from its $70,000 peak. This week, with financial reports due from five of the top seven U.S. tech companies and a Federal Reserve interest rate meeting among other significant events, the market may see an early surge in risk aversion.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements – Bitget Ecosystem (BGB)

Primary reasons:
  • Bitget announced today the launch of a new Launchpool project, Layer3, where staking BGB allows participation.
Gainers: Contrary to the trend, BGB rebounded within 24 hours and is currently fluctuating around $1.12.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • BGB empowerment: Holders of BGB can continuously participate in Bitget’s three primary platforms for new launches: Launchpad, Launchpool, and PoolX. These platforms bring the benefits of bull market quality asset launches to the community, making it suitable for long-term holding.
  • Changes in open interest: Bitget recently introduced perpetual futures trading pairs for BGB. Changes in the open interest of these futures can provide insights into potential buying or selling interest in BGB.

2.2 Sector Movements – POW Sector (BCH, KAS, and BSV)

Primary reasons:
  • On July 27, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference to appeal to the mining community in the U.S., announcing positive news for the mining industry.
Gainers: Over the past week, BCH, KAS, and BSV rose by 15%, 12%, and 18%, respectively.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • POW popularity: Following Trump's appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, the POW sector briefly surged in popularity, with noticeable net inflows of capital and traffic. It is crucial to keep an eye on the YouTube and Telegram mining community's engagement with POW tokens.
  • Changes in open interest: Using BCH as an example, the recent rise in BCH's open interest suggests increased hot money inflows. Consider using tv.coinglass to gauge the movement of major funds and monitor futures data. Start by observing the uptick in net long positions, and then monitor the futures data for any increase in open interest and trading volume. If this is the case, it means that major players are still buying as prices rise, so it might be advisable to continue holding.

2.3 Sectors to Focus on Next – Bitcoin Ecosystem Projects (SATS and CKB)

Primary reasons:
  • Former U.S. President Donald Trump made a landmark statement at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville. Trump plans to designate Bitcoin (BTC) as a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. and has declared that he will never sell any BTC, which is a positive development for the BTC ecosystem.
Specific tokens:
  • SATS: A leading BRC inscription project within the BTC ecosystem, also possessing memecoin attributes. SATS has recently shown strong performance relative to ORDI, hinting at potential forthcoming positive news.
  • CKB: A Bitcoin Layer 2 project based on the RGB++ scaling protocol, CKB continues to build its technical prowess in the competitive Layer 2 solutions space. The project adopts isomorphic binding with Bitcoin and further improves the Bitcoin ecosystem.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

Layer 3 (L3):
Layer 3 is an on-chain task platform where users can discover new projects and earn rewards. By aggregating multi-chain and DApp user activities, Layer 3 generates on-chain identity DID for users, enabling efficient token distribution. Yesterday, the unique active user count for Layer 3 increased by over 30%. The project is set to launch on Bitget Launchpool soon.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

Bitget Research: U.S. Government On-Chain BTC Transfer Sparks Market Panic, Risk Aversion Heightens Ahead of Fed Meeting image 0
Compound (COMP):
Recent concerns about governance attacks have surfaced within the Compound Finance community following the approval of a proposal. In response, the Compound community has suggested launching a new Staked Compound product to mitigate governance risks.

3.3 Google Search (Global and Regional)

Bitget Research: U.S. Government On-Chain BTC Transfer Sparks Market Panic, Risk Aversion Heightens Ahead of Fed Meeting image 1
Global focus:
Tapswap:
TapSwap, a Tap2Earn mini-app, received an endorsement from Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Launched at the end of 2023, it initially debuted on the Solana network before transitioning to the TON ecosystem, where it has garnered significant attention.
Regional focus:
(1) In Europe and the USA, hot topics are varied without a clear pattern, but the term "JD Vance Crypto" has topped multiple countries' hot searches, indicating a significant interest among traders in the political influence on cryptocurrencies.
(2) Similarly, no distinct hot topics are observed in Asia, but there is notable interest in U.S. stocks such as Tesla and NVIDIA in the Philippines.
(3) In Latin America, there's a pronounced interest in AI and DePIN, with GRASS, AGIX, and NEAR appearing prominently in the top searches in Colombia and Argentina, respectively.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Symbiotic
Symbiotic is a generalized restaking project that enables decentralized networks to bootstrap powerful, fully sovereign ecosystems. It offers a method known as Active Validation Service (AVS) to decentralized applications, allowing them to mutually protect each other. Users will be able to restake assets they have already deposited into other crypto protocols to help secure these AVS in exchange for rewards.
Symbiotic has emerged as a competitor to EigenLayer in the market. It has completed a $5.8 million seed round funding led by Paradigm and Cyber Fund. Currently, Symbiotic's TVL has reached $1.2 billion despite setting a hard deposit cap.
How to participate: Users can deposit various Symbiotic-supported tokens like wstETH, cbETH, and sUSDe into its protocol. However, most tokens have already reached their deposit cap, except for cbETH, which is still available. Users will need to wait for Symbiotic's next deposit opening to participate further.
Usual
Usual is an RWA stablecoin protocol that has launched USD0, a permissionless and fully compliant stablecoin backed 1:1 by RWAs. USUAL is the project's governance token that allows the community to guide the future development of the network. Usual addresses current stablecoin market issues by redistributing profits to the community and rewarding token holders with actual yields generated from RWAs.
Usual raised $7 million in a funding round led by IOSG Ventures, Kraken Ventures, GSR, and others. On July 11, Usual announced the official launch of its mainnet and simultaneously initiated a points program. Early participants can earn more Usual Pills points by providing liquidity or by minting and holding USD0++. These points can then be used to receive USUAL tokens during the airdrop period.
How to participate: Mint USD0 tokens on the Usual website using Ethereum-based USDC, ETH, or other assets. Select the option "Provide USD0 as liquidity on Curve." Use the minted USD0 tokens to provide liquidity.
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