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Bitget Research: Historical Recurrences of Gas Fee Lows Coincide with Mid-Term Price Lows, Accumulate in Phases if a Second Dip Occurs

Tommy & Jarseed
2024/08/12
Bitget Research: Historical Recurrences of Gas Fee Lows Coincide with Mid-Term Price Lows, Accumulate in Phases if a Second Dip Occurs
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

BTC's rebound ended with a significant drop over the weekend, while Ethereum's on-chain gas fees fell to 1 gwei, reflecting a lack of market highlights. There is a possibility of a further market downturn in the short term. However, considering the BTC reserves at centralized exchanges have reached a five-year low and whales continue accumulating BTC during these declines, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The highlights are as follows:
  • Active sectors: T (Threshold).
  • Top searched tokens and topics: SolvBTC, WBTC, and Celcuis.
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Fuel and Elixir.
Data collection time: August 12, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

After recovering half of its recent losses, BTC's price fell again over the weekend. During the last workweek, the spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows on two days and net outflows on three, reflecting a general lack of market highlights.
ETH's on-chain gas breaking below 1 gwei reflects low overall activity on the Ethereum blockchain. Historically, periods of minimal gas fees often coincide with mid-term price lows. Although the decrease in gas fees is related to the Dencun upgrade, which introduced blob-based transactions, the decline in Ethereum's on-chain activity is also quite apparent.
Despite the potential for another market downturn, two data points are noteworthy for long-term holders: (1) BTC reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen to their lowest level since November 19, 2018; (2) Long-term BTC holders have purchased over 180,000 BTC during the recent market pullback, potentially setting the stage for a future major rally.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements – T (Threshold)

Primary reasons:
  • WBTC and BitGo are caught in a controversy over centralization issues, prompting MakerDAO to propose the cessation of WBTC lending and bringing the loan-to-value ratio of Spark’s WBTC lending to zero.
  • Both tBTC and WBTC are tokenized forms of Bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain. WBTC is managed by companies like BitGo, while tBTC utilizes smart contracts and a decentralized network of nodes to ensure the exchange between Bitcoin and tBTC. Nodes must provide collateral to mint tBTC, representing a more decentralized approach.
Gainers: Trading volume for Threshold (T) increased sixfold compared to the previous day, with a consecutive two-day counter-trend rise exceeding 10%.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • Whether Threshold can seize the opportunity for marketing, increasing reports, and recognition is one of the keys to its continued rise. Additionally, the quick response from the BitGo CEO to the WBTC project controversy, his willingness to assist MakerDAO in due diligence, and the outcomes of MakerDAO’s proposal and BitGo’s public relations and incident management are crucial.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

SolvBTC:
  • Launched by Solv Protocol, SolvBTC is the first cross-chain yield-bearing Bitcoin asset. This token aims to provide Bitcoin holders with a stable and low-risk income source by integrating with decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, offering users multiple income opportunities. SolvBTC is supported on multiple blockchains such as Ethereum, Arbitrum, BNB Chain, and Merlin Chain, with plans for further expansion.
  • The token's yield is based on a diversified "delta neutral strategy" portfolio, expected to provide holders with a 5-10% base yield in BTC. Additionally, SolvBTC aims to boost the annual percentage rate (APR) by unlocking inherent income opportunities, thereby bringing additional economic prospects to the decentralized finance (DeFi) segment within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

Bitget Research: Historical Recurrences of Gas Fee Lows Coincide with Mid-Term Price Lows, Accumulate in Phases if a Second Dip Occurs image 0
WBTC:
Recently, WBTC has faced significant risks due to custody changes and trust issues related to Justin Sun. BitGo announced the transfer of WBTC custody to a new joint venture with BiT Global, which has raised concerns about decentralization and transparency within the DeFi community. If MakerDAO reduces or eliminates the use of WBTC as collateral, it could lead to a large-scale sell-off in the market, thereby increasing the volatility of Bitcoin prices and uncertainty in the DeFi ecosystem.

3.3 Google Search (Global and Regional)

Bitget Research: Historical Recurrences of Gas Fee Lows Coincide with Mid-Term Price Lows, Accumulate in Phases if a Second Dip Occurs image 1
Global focus:
Celsius: Recently, the main developments at Celsius Network revolve around its exit from bankruptcy proceedings and plans to return assets to customers. Celsius has reached two key settlement agreements that allow it to end the bankruptcy proceedings and return some assets to customers. These agreements address claims arising from allegations of management fraud and compensate customers who deposited in its Earn program with partial cryptocurrency assets and shares in the new company. The settlements were initially planned to commence in early 2024.
Regional focus:
(1) In the CIS region, TapSwap is a hot topic. This Tap2Earn mini-app, received an endorsement from Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Launched at the end of 2023, it initially soared on the Solana network before transitioning to the TON ecosystem, where it has garnered significant attention.
(2) Latin America shows an increased interest in SOL and ETH, with AI project sector appearing on hot searches in Colombia and Argentina.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Fuel
Fuel is a UTXO-based modular execution layer that brings a globally accessible scale to Ethereum. As a modular execution layer, Fuel can achieve global throughput in a way not possible with monolithic chains, while inheriting security from Ethereum.
In September 2022, Fuel Labs successfully raised $80 million in a funding round led by Blockchain Capital and Stratos Technologies. Fuel also received investments from several leading investment institutions, including CoinFund, Bain Capital Crypto, and TRGC.
How to participate: Deposit qualifying tokens to earn points. For every $1 deposited, participants will earn 1.5 points per day.
Earn 1.5 points per day with the following assets: ETH, WET, eETH, rsETH, rETH, wbETH, USDT, USDC, USDe, sUSDe, and stETH. Additionally, earn 3 points per day when you deposit ezETH from July 8 to July 22.
Elixir
Founded in 2022, Elixir is a modular DPoS liquidity network that allows anyone to provide liquidity directly to the order book, bringing liquidity to long-tail crypto assets and enabling exchanges and protocols to direct their ledger liquidity.
On March 12, 2024, Elixir completed an $8 million Series B funding, bringing its valuation to $800 million. Previously, on October 18, 2023, Elixir completed a $7.5 million Series A funding, and on January 17, 2023, it secured $2.1 million in seed funding, with investors including Hack VC, GSR, Sui, and Amber Group.
How to participate: Earn points on Apothecary by depositing at least $100 worth of ETH to mint elxETH and unlock treasure boxes. elxETH is a native yield token backed on a 1:1 ratio by ETH, which will become a universal LP token across all chains upon mainnet launch, powering order book liquidity for exchanges. Additionally, you can provide liquidity for Elixir-supported protocols through https://agg.elixir.xyz/.
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