Deribit sees increase in bitcoin futures open interest despite declines on the CME

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The Block2024/01/25 17:06

By:Brian McGleenon

An analyst has identified several underlying market movements that could be behind a decline in bitcoin futures open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Deribit sees increase in bitcoin futures open interest despite declines on the CME image 0

Bitcoin BTC -1.25% futures open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has declined by more than $1 billion since its peak on Jan. 10, whilst derivatives open interest on Deribit has increased, according to Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Luuk Strijers.

"The decline in CME futures open interest for bitcoin contrasts with the relative stability observed in Deribit's BTC options or futures open interest. Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit is up 3% in contracts and futures and perpetuals open interest is up around $100 million since Jan. 10," Strijers said in an email to The Block.

Difference in CME and Deribit open interest trends

The Deribit Chief Commercial Officer said the declining trend in open interest on CME could imply several underlying market movements.

"The decrease in CME futures open interest might suggest that investors, especially those from traditional finance sectors, are adapting their investment strategies. With the introduction of spot ETFs, these investors might find spot ETFs a more straightforward and efficient way to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies," Strijers said.

He added that the ease of trading and lower costs associated with ETFs, compared to futures contracts, could be a compelling reason for this shift in market behavior.

Market becoming less volatile

Tomorrow's end of January expiry date for outstanding options and futures contracts is particularly noteworthy, with around $3.7 billion in bitcoin options notional open interest set to expire and a max pain level at $41,000.

"As we approach tomorrow's options expiry, it's clear the market is steadily recovering from the initial shocks of the ETF introduction and the GBTC unwind," Strijers added.

Strijers said that the Deribit Volatility Index for bitcoin has decreased significantly after witnessing a significant uptick after the launch of multiple spot bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10.

"The volatility index has plummeted from over 70 during the start of the GBTC unwind and ETF launch, to now hovering around 45," he added. Another key metric that he highlighted was bitcoin annualized futures basis, which he said has seen a significant decline.

"Before the ETF launch, the annualized futures basis figure was over 20%, but it's now stabilized between 8-10%," he added. The basis is a rate between the bitcoin futures price and the BTC spot price.

Strijers added that another factor at play in causing a decline in CME bitcoin futures open interest could be that investors are seeing more value in using options on Deribit as a tool for hedging, speculative purposes, and obtaining exposure in general. He added that the relative stability on Deribit suggests that investors outside of the U.S. are relying on options for their different risk profiles and strategic purposes.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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