Replay the exciting game of MDBL's fair launch of LBP

Original source: Dragonverse Neo

On March 29, Dragonverse Neo started the fair launch of the token $MDBL, which has lasted for 9 days so far and will end at 4 pm Beijing time on April 8. $MDBL uses the relatively niche LBP (Liquidity Bootstrapping Pool) launch method to achieve fair and efficient value discovery. Due to the special LBP mechanism, many user games have appeared in the 9 days so far, and a very interesting curve has emerged.

This article will review the trend of $MDBL since the fair launch through on-chain data analysis and sentiment insights within the community, and see where this curve comes from and where it will go.

Dragonverse Neo Project Introduction

Dragonverse Neo is an open world game created by MOBOX, the OG team of blockchain games. It is built on the Bitcoin second-layer network Merlin Chain and covers popular gameplays of masterpieces such as Paloo, Zelda, Genshin Impact, and Pokémon.

In addition to games, the Dragonverse Neo ecosystem also includes a Bitcoin game L3, MOSE chain, which provides one-stop support for Dragonverse Neo and other Bitcoin ecosystem games from infrastructure to game production and distribution.

The special LBP mechanism

LBP evolved from the weighted pool of Balancer and aims to solve a core problem: how to distribute tokens to community members at a relatively fair price?

This mechanism has the following advantages in fairness:

· Buying first does not necessarily mean buying at the lowest price, avoiding preemption - achieving fairness in purchase time

· No limit on purchase volume to prevent large households and robots from monopolizing - a wider distribution of holdings

· Prices can rise or fall, encouraging rational price positions - efficient price consensus discovery

During the LBP process, the price of tokens will be affected in two ways:

· "Time weight", that is, the pre-set $MDBL and BTC weight change curve (fixed price drop)

· "Trading behavior", that is, the change in the amount of $MDBL and BTC in the pool caused by the user's buying and selling

This model provides suitable participation opportunities for both large and retail investors, short-term speculation and long-term investment, and also makes the user game in this $MDBL fair launch more rich and exciting.

$MDBL fair launch full process analysis

Opening FOMO

At 4 pm on March 29th, Beijing time, the $MDBL fair launch was officially launched. Based on the excellent early layout, the market sentiment was extremely fomo. Within 15 minutes after the fair launch was launched, the FDV of $MDBL soared from the initial setting of 5 million US dollars to more than 78 million US dollars. The trading volume in the first half hour also directly exceeded 94 BTC. The decline of the price curve is far lower than the preset, and new buying power continues to enter the market.

Due to the mechanism of LBP, large transactions in a short period of time will significantly increase the price of tokens, and the large amount of buying power brought by fomo will continue to push the price of $MDBL higher. During this period, short-term traders and smart money completed the first round of bands and realized selling profits.

Gradually calming down

Starting from the evening of March 29, market sentiment gradually calmed down, and the community began to study the mechanism of LBP. KOLs also successively issued interpretations of the mechanism of LBP and past case analyses. The price of $MDBL began to slowly decline along the official preset price curve. This situation lasted for a day and a half until the morning of March 31.

It is worth noting that in the 36 hours between 8 pm on March 29 and 8 am on March 31, the BTC in the pool increased by only 1.5, while the trading volume increased by 20 BTC. Retail investors are quietly investing and accumulating chips while waiting for $MDBL to fall along the price curve; while smart money is constantly trading and accumulating funds.

Among them, the user with address 089A has received the most attention from the community. This user made large purchases several times during the FOMO period of the previous stage to raise the price; during this period, he gradually sold a part of the previously purchased $MDBL to realize profits, and then began to buy frequently, which was jokingly called "big households saving themselves" by the community.

Reversal

Since noon on March 31, the rate of price decline has slowed down significantly, which means that the continued increase in buying power has been able to hedge the preset price drop.

The price of $MDBL bottomed out at around $0.0058 around 1 pm on April 1, and then the buying power completely broke through the preset price drop, realizing a reversal of the price trend. The price rose against the trend and briefly stabilized around $0.012 from the evening of April 4 to the early morning of April 5.

Between 1 pm on April 1 and 1 am on April 5, the transaction volume increased by 90 BTC, while the BTC in the pool increased by about 52.

If the previous stage was an arbitrage period, smart money and big players tended to accumulate funds continuously; this stage is a complete accumulation period, and the buying power far exceeds the selling pressure.

Between March 31 and April 5 at 1 a.m.

· The number of participating addresses increased by more than 46.6%, and users who had been waiting and watching gradually began to enter the market

· In terms of order types, 87.9% of transactions were buys and 12.1% of transactions were sells

· In terms of trading volume, buys were as high as 76.86 BTC, and sells were 20.96 BTC, less than one-third of buys

All of the above show that the psychological price of most users has bottomed out, and they are unwilling to sell their "low-priced chips". Behind every person who smashes the market with low-priced chips, there are countless people waiting to absorb chips. As the low-priced chips are lost, the average market price gradually rises, forming a new bottom psychological price that is much higher than the previous stage.

During this period, the 089A user, who is the most concerned by the community, bought a total of more than 10 BTC of $MDBL, and even a large order of 7.45 BTC appeared. Everyone in the community shouted that they wanted to smash the market and put 089A on the mountain, but the $MDBL transaction record showed a scene where the buying volume was far greater than the selling volume.

What will happen next?

Since April 5, the price of $MDBL has fluctuated, but it has always remained above $0.009. The continuous buying power has continuously hedged the preset price reduction curve, making the price retracement rate of $MDBL far lower than the preset, and currently remains above $0.01.

Referring to the past cases of using LBP to issue tokens, the trend of $MDBL so far is very similar to the price structure with low middle and high ends that often appears in high-quality projects. The characteristics of this structure are as follows:

· Opening fomo pulls up

· The early preset curve has strong pulling force, and the price drops as expected

· The buying power rises sharply in the middle, and the pulling force of the preset curve gradually cannot resist the buying power, and a reversal occurs <-- At this stage

· Closing fomo rushes up again

It is recommended that you invest rationally, check the project information and make value judgments, and avoid emotional investment.

This article does not represent any investment advice, crypto investment should be cautious, DYOR

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