On-chain data for the 15th week: In the long run, market momentum is still accumulating, and the market is likely to pick up in May.

Original title: "Looking at Yaoshan Mountain, the setting sun shines on the wall｜WTR 4.15"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

This week, from April 8 to April 15, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $72797, and the lowest price was close to $60660, with an oscillation amplitude of about 16.7%. Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 65000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 59000-63000 is about 640,000 pieces;

2. 64000-68000 is about 1.54 million pieces;

• The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%;

• The probability of not rising above 71000〜74000 in the short term is 67%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The overall CPI annual rate in March was 3.5%, higher than the expected value of 3.40% and higher than the previous value of 3.20%.

2. The core CP1 annual rate in March was 3.8%, higher than the expected value of 3.70% and the same as the previous value of 3.80%.

3. The US CP1 annual rate in March was 3.5%, the highest level since September 2023.

4. The first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which was fully digested by the interest rate swap market, was postponed to November. The bets on rate cuts in June almost disappeared, and the expectation of only two rate cuts this year was firm.

5. JPMorgan Chase said that the divergence between the pricing of the Federal Reserve and other central banks seems to be widening. From now until June, many things may change, and the shift to a more relaxed monetary policy may be delayed for at least a few months.

6. The European Central Bank's interest rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.5%.

7. ECB Governing Council member Stournaras said: It is time to part ways with the Federal Reserve and reiterated the call for four rate cuts in 2024;

8. Governing Council member Kazaks: The time for rate cuts is approaching, and if nothing unexpected happens, rate cuts will be made in June.

9. ING Bank said that Thursday's meeting should be the last stop before the ECB cuts interest rates.

Crypto Ecological News

1. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren said that the stablecoin bill had passed the House Financial Services Committee in the summer and is currently deadlocked. Warren urged members of the House of Representatives to be aware of the significance of the risks when considering proposals to regulate stablecoins, and to avoid introducing stablecoin legislation that could trigger another financial crisis.

2. South Africa has begun issuing licenses to cryptocurrency companies, and the country's regulator plans to approve about 60 digital asset companies by April.

3. Bloomberg: Hong Kong will approve BTC and ETH spot ETFs as early as next Monday.

4. Brian Dixon, CEO of investment company Off the Chain Capital, said: ETF demand has already impacted market supply. Once the halving occurs, the supply will further decrease, and it is logical for prices to rise.

5. David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, said: This round of rise is the first time that BTC has broken through its historical high before the halving. Some people are worried that ETFs have driven demand in advance and will linger at the current level for a while.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long it will last in this stage, and what situation we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• High-quality selling pressure

• Growth and destruction of on-chain chips

• Short-term holder costs

(Figure below High-quality selling pressure)

High-quality selling pressure began to decline, and the market returned to medium selling pressure.

This means that the risk of overall downward fluctuations in the market may gradually decrease.

（Figure below: Growth and destruction of on-chain chips）

Although the market is still in the midst of various explosions in derivatives, and most people in the market are on the sidelines, there are still more net on-chain chips growing.

From the current point of view, the market still has strong growth momentum.

（Figure below: Short-term holder cost）

The role of short-term holder cost in the medium and even long term is very critical. The corrections of many bull markets in history always touch this price.

In a bear market, the stage top of the market always touches this price and then falls.

Currently, the short-term holder cost is about 59,000.

The short-term holder cost indicates the psychology of short-term participants. Below this key price, short-term market participants no longer make profits, and even suffer losses.

Generally speaking, short-term participants are reluctant to sell unprofitable chips without emotional catharsis and despair.

Currently, the main participants in the market are basically short-term participants.

Therefore, the short-term holder cost plays a very critical role.

Medium-term exploration

• Short-term sentiment composition

• Total stablecoin supply

• Accumulation trend points

• Network sentiment positivity

(Short-term sentiment composition in the figure below)

Red line: 1 day-1 week position

Blue line: 1 year-2 year position

From the recent status, the position of ultra-short-term participants has weakened, and they will face a short-term lack of new volume.

The position of long-term participants is also decreasing, and there may be a short-term lack of buyer power in the market, and it may still be in the rectification stage.

（Figure below: Total supply of stablecoins）

Stablecoins have temporarily slowed down their growth, and this situation has lasted for a week.

The purchasing power supply in the market may be temporarily stagnant.

（Figure below: Accumulation trend）

The accumulation of each address has slowed down, and the current situation is close to January and February 2024.

The overall market is in a rhythm of buying and watching by various volumes, and it may take some time for this state to slide.

（Figure below: Network sentiment positivity）

The overall trading sentiment is still in the repair stage, and it may take time to adjust.

Most of the recent situation is also due to the fact that buying is not active, which may take some time.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Option implied volatility

• Profit and loss transfer volume

• New addresses and active addresses

• Bingtangcheng exchange net position

• Yitai exchange net position

• High-weight selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin exchange net position

• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. Derivatives have a high risk.

(The following figure shows the derivatives risk factor)

Last week, the risk factor was directly squeezed upward in the short term. From the perspective of risk factor, the risk factor is in the neutral zone, which means that there is also some room for short squeeze. It is expected that there may still be a two-way liquidation of derivatives this week.

（The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio）

The put ratio and option trading volume have not changed much compared with last week, and are at a medium level.

（The figure below shows the derivative trading volume）

Last week, it was mentioned that the market was close to a change, and the subsequent market quickly pulled back. The current derivative trading volume is at a medium-low level, and the derivative activity is average, with no major change expected.

（The figure below shows the implied volatility of options）

With the market's correction, the implied volatility has increased significantly in the short term.

Sentimental status rating: neutral

（The figure below shows the profit and loss transfer volume）

The short-term holder cost has not changed much for two consecutive weeks, indicating that the recent market buying enthusiasm is insufficient, and it is still around 59K. In addition, the positive sentiment and panic sentiment of this correction are both spreading continuously, indicating that the current BTC holders in the market have not panicked and sold, which leaves enough room for another change in the market in the future.

（The figure below shows the new addresses and active addresses）

New and active addresses are at a medium-low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in an outflow accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.

（Figure below: Net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange）

Although the outflow rate has slowed down and there is a small amount of inflow, it is still in an outflow accumulation state.

（Figure below: Net position of Etai Exchange）

Ebing is also in an outflow accumulation state.

（Figure below: High-weight selling pressure）

There is no high-weight selling pressure so far in this market correction.

Purchasing power rating: Compared with the large drop in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins is basically the same.

（Global purchasing power status in the figure below）

Currently, global purchasing power is in a state of massive loss.

（USDT exchange net position in the figure below）

USDT net position is generally flat.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 61,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.

（The following figure shows the off-chain data of Coinbase）

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60000 and 61000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 72000, and 74000.

（The following figure shows the off-chain data of Binance）

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60000, 61000, and 62000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000 and 72000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000 and 72,000.

Summary of this week:

Summary of news:

From the perspective of the experience cycle: "The realization of the positive benefits of the Bitcoin halving is negative", this sentence has always been applied.

The first two cycles were the same (halving and negative decline), and a new round of market entered after the halving.

Of course, almost all the market conditions so far are centered around interest rate cuts (new highs in gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies).

April is an unstable time for halving, and the market is likely to start to pick up or rebound in May.

In June, the European Central Bank took the lead in starting a monetary easing cycle, and the Federal Reserve will take over to relax monetary policy.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last week showed: "Almost all participants believe that it is appropriate to cut interest rates this year; the Federal Reserve is inclined to reduce the monthly balance sheet reduction by about half."

In other words, the good news is that there will be fewer interest rate cuts this year, but it is just a matter of when.

And from further data, the market has begun to digest the reduced probability of a rate cut in June.

The bet on a rate cut in June has dissipated. From the perspective of the swap market, the fully priced rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be postponed to September.

The market rose too quickly, and when faced with uncertainty, it became anxious too quickly. At this stage, the emotionality is serious, and it may take some time to digest and sort it out slowly.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The large amount of selling pressure of high-quality selling pressure has begun to decline and return to medium selling pressure, which means that the selling pressure in the overall market will have less and less impact on the market;

2. The chips on the chain are still net growth, and the original power of the market is still strong;

3. In the short term, only the cost is around 59,000, which is often the key price for the reversal and correction of the bull and bear markets;

• Market tone:

The selling pressure has declined, and the market momentum is still accumulating.

Medium-term exploration on the chain:

1. The power of new buyers in the market has weakened;

2. The growth of stablecoins has stagnated slightly;

3. The accumulation of each address has weakened;

4. Trading sentiment is still repairing and adjusting.

• Market tone:

Repair, adjustment

There is a wait-and-see attitude in the market, and the overall market is in a state of repair and adjustment.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is relatively high.

2. The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-low level.

3. Market sentiment rating: neutral.

4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows an outflow accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.

5. The global purchasing power has dropped significantly compared with last week, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is basically the same.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 61,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.

7. The probability of not falling below 57,000~61,000 in the short term is 82%; among them, the probability of not rising below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 67%.

• Market tone:

Although the market has a correction, there has been no panic selling, and the overall market sentiment is still neutral. Short-term chips are still accumulating near the 65K price, but the overall purchasing power of the current market is insufficient. It is expected that there may still be a derivative liquidation this week, and the probability of an extreme downward break below the cost line of short-term holders is still low.

Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群： https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群： https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号： https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia