This may be the most expensive halving in Bitcoin's history

Original title: 《This Bitcoin halving is the most expensive ever》

Original author: Protos Staff

Original translation: Frost, BlockBeats

Editor's note: This article explains a series of situations that occurred before the Bitcoin halving: futures markets, parties, etc., and also predicts the returns of miners and investors after the halving. BlockBeats translated the original text as follows.

This is the most expensive Bitcoin halving in history. From the halving in 2020 to now, the price of Bitcoin has risen sixfold, and from the halving in 2016 to now, the price of Bitcoin has risen nearly 100 times. It is widely believed that mining rewards will soar to a record high - at least seven figures in US dollars - due to the launch of on-chain runes and the new "Epic Sat".

From every piece of information so far, the event is going to be bountiful. Big parties are being planned around the world, warm-up destination parties with tickets over $800 per ticket have sold out, and Bitcoin enthusiasts are participating in the futures market for the first halved block. Social media celebrities have scheduled multiple competing live streams on YouTube and X.

Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and as the name suggests, the token reward for each new block attached to the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half. This Saturday, miner revenue, i.e. token rewards, will be cut in half from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin. The halving will not change transaction fees, which are selected by users themselves.

While the halving is bad news for miners' long-term revenue, it is good news for cryptocurrency investors. The stock-to-flow ratio is a common financial metric used by investors to analyze commodities such as oil or gold, calculated as the ratio of existing supply (stock) to incremental supply (flow).

Bitcoin Halving: Changing Bitcoin Stock, Flow and Collectible Value

This particular halving event is the most expensive ever, not only because of the price of Bitcoin or the cost of the upcoming celebration, but also because it will simultaneously reward the stock-to-flow metric and miners' short-term revenue.

It needs to be explained that previous halvings have never seen noteworthy speculation in collectibles. Collectibles here generally refer to currencies with added value greater than their face value, including cryptocurrencies, for example, a limited edition and intact one dollar, because of its limited and intact appearance, someone is willing to pay more than one dollar to buy it.

However, this year's halving block on Saturday will have millions of dollars in bids from collectible bidders.

This halving will reward stock-to-flow indicators and short-term income for miners

Over the past year, the Ordinals protocol, created by Casey Rodarmor and a group of Bitcoin enthusiasts, has created a multi-billion dollar market. The community uses Rodarmor's ordinal theory and related platforms such as Inscriptions to create amazing prices for "collectibles".

So this year, unlike previous halving years, wealthy traders were willing to pay millions of dollars for a single Satoshi immediately after the halving occurred. Not only that, most traders were willing to pay for Runes and Runes-related protocol mints, as well as the staggering value of Epic Satoshi, which speculators have already set expectations into the seven figures.

Let the celebrations begin

There will be no shortage of collectors and speculators at this weekend's halving party. Unlike any period in Bitcoin's history, they have more money to spend than ever before.

Destination Pre-Party for This Year’s Bitcoin Halving

This year is a particularly rich halving for Bitcoin, not only because the difficulty adjustment and coinbase reward will change simultaneously, it’s the most public and important halving, and it happens on a perfect day: Saturday, April 20, 2024.

Collectors of ordinal numbers, runes, BRC-20 and rare satoshis will join a richer Bitcoin community than ever this year. Tens of millions of new people have bought Bitcoin since the last halving, and the price has increased 6x. This halving will be the most expensive halving of any category to date – and Bitcoin holders have plenty to celebrate the occasion.

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