Why crypto traders are bullish on the delay before Ethereum ETFs go live

Ethereum ETH -3.10% ETFs have now been approved and unlike the Bitcoin ETFs, which started trading the day after approval, these will likely go live in a few weeks or months .

The delay is because even though the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the 19b-4 forms, the ETFs need to see their S-1 registration statements go effective before trading can begin. This is in the early stages and the timings will depend on how quickly the agency can provide feedback to issuers. But even though this feels anticlimactic after the last-minute turn of events, traders argue that it’s a good thing.

“Everyone was anticipating the ETF would not get approved,” said Split Capital co-founder Zaheer Ebtikar. “Then very quickly we went back into a market where everyone was caught offside.”

Ebtikar explained that if the products started trading immediately, there would have been much more violent price action. Instead, the delay allows market participants time to front-run potential inflows to the ETFs. He noted that even if they see conservative estimates of 15% of the size of the Bitcoin ETF inflows, this would still be a substantial amount of value.

This matched the view by eToro analyst Simon Peters, who said, “With the 19b-4s out of the way, it could be an opportunity now for savvy crypto investors to buy Ethereum in anticipation of the S-1s being approved, front-running the ETFs going live and the billions of dollars potentially flowing into these.”

Peters added that the price of bitcoin reached an all-time high after its ETFs went live, begging the question of whether that would happen to ether. He noted that ether is currently around 35% away from its all-time high.

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“While not too impactful, the delay is a marginal positive, as the 19b-4 approvals caught most by surprise and the delay therefore should enable anticipation and publicity to build into the launch,” concurred GSR Research Analyst Brian Rudick. “All else equal, this should help early inflows into the products, which would help ETH’s price.”

With traders caught unaware by the 11th-hour change of tune from the SEC, traders flocked to leverage to capture the early momentum, with open interest rising 26%, noted Arete Capital co-founder Ilya Paveliev. He said this is likely to revert as short-term traders take profits, but said the ETF launch should boost spot volumes.

“Expected initial daily net spot inflows of $20-40M for the ETH ETF, 15-30% of the BTC ETF, combined with low exchange reserves and 30% of ETH supply locked in staking, set the stage for a supply-constrained price squeeze,” Paveliev said.

While it's unclear exactly when the S-1s will go effective, JPMorgan analysts said they expect trading to start "well before November."