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Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony charges. Can his campaign for the “Crypto President” continue?

Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony charges. Can his campaign for the “Crypto President” continue?

BlockBeats2024/05/31 06:22
By:BlockBeats
Source: Bloomberg, BBC, Decrypt
Compiled by: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance


Donald Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a Manhattan criminal trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. This has injected an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the 2024 U.S. presidential election.


Trump has survived two impeachments and countless other scandals, but still leads Biden in most polls.


I. Is Trump's verdict an opportunity for Biden?


Bipartisan presidential campaign strategists agree that the guilty verdict provides a new opportunity for Biden, whose lackluster performance and declining poll numbers have caused concern among many Democratic lawmakers and party officials.


Michael Taylor, Biden campaign communications director, said in a statement Thursday that the result shows "no one is above the law" and that Trump "has always mistakenly believed he would never be punished for breaking the law for personal gain." But Biden also acknowledged that the legal system alone can't stop Trump from taking back the White House in November.


"There's only one way to stop Donald Trump from the White House: at the ballot box," Biden said in a fundraising pitch.


Trump's felony conviction provides Biden with an opportunity to shake up the campaign by refocusing voters' attention on Trump's behavior.


"It would be a dereliction of duty not to rely solely on the verdict," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and veteran of Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign. "I hope President Biden will make a major speech and let Democratic officials incite the country and do everything possible to make the campaign a referendum on Trump."


Second, the story of Trump and adult actresses


American adult film actress Stormy Daniels said that she and Trump had an affair since 2006, and he has been trying to keep the matter low-key since then.


Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony charges. Can his campaign for the “Crypto President” continue? image 0


Daniels is her stage name. Her real name is Stephanie Clifford. She was born in Louisiana in 1979. Before she began directing and writing in 2004, she was an adult film actress. Daniels said that she had a one-time relationship with Trump at a hotel during a celebrity golf tournament held in Lake Tahoe, California in July 2006. Trump married Melania Trump in 2005.


Trump strongly denied having an extramarital affair with Daniels.


Daniels accepted a "hush money" from Trump's personal lawyer because she was worried about the safety of her family.


Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen also confirmed that he had paid Daniels $130,000 in private.


Daniels pointed out that she signed the so-called "hush money" document with Trump's lawyer Cohen shortly before the election, but Trump did not sign it, so it is legally invalid.


3. Will voters' attitudes change?


Trump tried to use this verdict to motivate hardcore supporters, most of whom believe his claim that the prosecution was politically motivated and aimed at preventing him from taking power.


"The real verdict will be made by the people on November 5th, and they know what happened here," Trump said in brief comments to reporters outside the court.


Trump used a similar strategy last year, capitalizing on Republican anger over his indictment to pressure his primary rival to drop out of the race. It’s unclear, though, whether it will work in the general election.


James Carville, a senior strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, said the most important factor about the guilty verdict was that it was handed down by an impartial jury — and therefore could resonate with marginal and undecided voters who typically ignore partisan messengers.


“Trump can’t win with his people alone,” Carville said. “And it’s certainly going to have a dampening effect on everybody else.”


Surveys conducted before the verdict suggested Trump will indeed pay a price for the jury’s conclusion that he intentionally falsified business records during the 2016 presidential campaign to hide his affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters.


A May 23 Marquette Law School poll of registered voters found that a “guilty” verdict would give Biden a 4-point lead in a national head-to-head matchup with Trump, while a “not guilty” verdict would give Trump a 6-point lead.


Whether the race shifts may depend more on Biden than on Trump. At least some strategists in both parties expect Trump’s newfound felony status to have a lasting impact — if Biden and his campaign can highlight the conviction to a population that is mostly unconcerned about national affairs.


There are also practical problems for Trump’s campaign, which has been hoping to increase travel to battleground states without being constrained by court schedules. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee.


Evidence of internal strife has surfaced since the verdict, with Trump surrogates clashing on social media with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, now a Republican candidate in the state’s U.S. Senate race, after Hogan urged Americans to “respect the verdict and the legal process.”


The title of “felon” can unsettle low-intention, low-information voters, who are the reason Trump is currently ahead.


Despite the Trump campaign’s public claims of indifference to the trial, Trump has privately told allies and advisers that he does not want to be a felon.


Fourth, Trump’s response


Prosecutors say Trump directed Cohen to pay $130,000 to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election to stop her from going public with what she said was a sexual encounter between them. Prosecutors have argued that Trump reimbursed Cohen for hush money, with several payments for “legal services” recorded on the company’s books. Trump's team claimed the money was actually for legal work.


Trump has denied all charges, calling the trial "rigged."


Trump also called on donors to contribute to his troubled presidential campaign.


"They searched my home, arrested me, took my picture, and now they just convicted me!" read one fundraising appeal. "I'm calling for 10 million Trump Patriots to donate before the end of the day."


Trump's fundraising operation has had several wins in recent weeks, including $76 million raised in April, $25 million more than Biden raised that month. He has also received support from billionaire Miriam Adelson and Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwarzman, two of the Republican Party's largest donors. Trump also raised $40 million for his Texas campaign, much of it from oil and gas executives, including Continental Resources Chairman Harold Hamm.


V. Reaction of traditional financial and cryptocurrency markets


Trump's verdict has not yet had an impact on Wall Street.


From 24-hour currency trading to after-hours stock trading, most financial assets (except for shares of Trump Media and Technology Group) remained largely stable after a New York jury found Trump guilty of all 34 felonies.


But for traders, the question now is how this decision will affect markets that have begun preparing for the 2024 US election - in which Trump will almost certainly face off against President Joe Biden.


"The stock market has historically been immune to domestic political turmoil," said Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research. "However, the political atmosphere will obviously be more turbulent after Trump's verdict, which may increase stock market volatility."


Compared with the stable performance of traditional financial assets, crypto assets have obviously reacted more violently.


TRUMP's price plummeted from about $15 before the verdict was read to $11.27 shortly after the verdict, a drop of nearly 25% in just over an hour.


Trump concept coins with smaller market capitalizations are also currently falling sharply, with MAGA Hat (MAGA) falling 16% in an hour, Super Trump (STRUMP) falling 16% in an hour, and MAGA VP (MVP) falling 22% in an hour.


Meme coins inspired by Trump's main rival, current US President Joe Biden, rose after the verdict. Jeo Boden (BODEN), the largest meme coin by market value, rose 12% in an hour.


VI. Other issues worth paying attention to


1. What will happen after Trump is convicted?


The next step will be sentencing by Judge Juan Mersch, which is scheduled for July 11. This is only a few days away from the Republican National Convention on July 15, where the Republican Party will formally nominate Trump as the presidential candidate for the November 5 election. Mersch said that Trump can remain at large until the sentencing.


Defendants convicted of felonies are usually sentenced to prison, but the law does not require them to serve their sentences. In particular, the former president is 77 years old, a first-time offender, and has no criminal record, so it is necessary to deal with him leniently. Trump may also be required to pay some form of financial penalty.


2. How long may Trump be in prison?


Each count is a Class E felony, carrying a sentence of 1 1/2 to 4 years. Because Trump was convicted of multiple counts, he can be sentenced to multiple counts concurrently, meaning the former president will serve all his sentences at the same time.


3. Can Trump appeal?


Yes, he immediately challenged the verdict, saying the fight is "far from over." But he can only appeal to the state of New York after the verdict.


Trump may eventually ask the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene.


4. Where might Trump serve his sentence?


It's unclear where Trump will serve his sentence, but the U.S. Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting current or former presidents, has met with federal, state and city officials to discuss the possibility of Trump going to prison.


If Trump is sentenced to a year or less, he would likely serve his sentence at New York's Rikers Island prison, which has seven prisons. Allen Weisselberg, 76, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, who recently pleaded guilty to perjury, is serving a five-month sentence in the prison's medical unit.


5. Does Trump's conviction mean he can't run for reelection?


Trump could still run for public office. The U.S. Constitution has few qualifications for running for office, including no restrictions on character or criminal record.


6. How will the verdict affect the 2024 election?


It’s unclear how his conviction will affect the outcome of the election. But if Trump wins, the United States will have a convicted felon as head of state for the first time — a fact that is not uncommon elsewhere in the world. Trump has compared himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.


7. Can Trump pardon himself if he’s re-elected?


If Trump is re-elected, he could theoretically instruct the Justice Department to drop the cases.


Data from blockchain prediction market Polymarket shows that traders still expect Trump to beat Biden in the November election. Even after the verdict, Trump is still far ahead — with a 56% chance of winning, compared to Biden’s 38%.


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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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