Bitget Research: BTC Funding Rate Turns Negative, Low Liquidity Poses Risk of Sharp Decline

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Bitget Research2024/06/18 07:05

By:Aaron & Tommy

In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has declined overall, with significant pullbacks in altcoins. BTC funding rate turned negative, liquidity is extremely low, and the wealth effect is suboptimal. The highlights are as follows:

Sectors with strong wealth creation effects: Ton ecosystem and AI sector.
Top searched tokens and topics: CARV, ZKsync, BGB, and Velodrome.
Potential airdrop opportunities: Magic Eden Wallet and RedStone.

Data collection time: June 18, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

The cryptocurrency market has seen an overall decline in the past 24 hours, with altcoins experiencing significant pullbacks. Both BTC and ETH were under pressure, with BTC dipping to a low of $65,500 before rebounding. Futures data show that BTC's funding rate has turned negative, with extremely low liquidity and a potential for further weakening. Recent token launches by ZK and Layerzero have strained stablecoin demand, leading to insufficient liquidity.

Looking at external markets, the U.S. Nasdaq index reached new highs driven by major tech stocks like Microsoft and Apple. However, the wealth effect from the U.S. capital market did not transfer to European stocks or the crypto market; instead, it attracted capital from these markets. Moving forward, it will be important to monitor the correlation between the Nasdaq and BTC. If this correlation becomes positive but the Nasdaq starts to decline, it could significantly impact the crypto market.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements — TON ecosystem (TON)

Primary reasons:

Continuous capital inflow: Following Pantera’s direct investment in the TON ecosystem, TON has been in an uptrend with sustained capital inflows.
Strong project performances: NOT, a gaming project within the TON ecosystem, has recently performed well, drawing attention to the TON ecosystem.

Gainers: TON rose over 8.5% against the trend in the past 7 days.

Factors affecting future market conditions:

Future trading activity: Currently, a major shortcoming in the Ton ecosystem is the relatively fewer active traders compared to other chains, which results in significantly lower trading volumes. If TON can launch a popular memecoin, it could boost trader activity, potentially increasing TON’s price and liquidity.
Future support from Pantera for the Ton ecosystem: Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, mentioned on social media that Pantera recently made its largest investment in the Telegram TON blockchain project, increasing attention to the Ton ecosystem. If project financing and product launches can be implemented promptly, the prosperity of the Ton ecosystem could arrive sooner.

2.2 Sectors to Focus on Next — AI Sector

Primary reasons:

Binance recently announced support for the merger of FET, AGIX, and OCEAN into ASI, causing a buzz in Europe and the USA and garnering high community interest.
Arweave AO announced the launch of AO token minting; AR holders can acquire AO through a fair distribution process. Arweave specializes in data-layer operations.

Specific tokens:

TAO: Bittensor is an open-source protocol that powers a blockchain-based machine learning network. Machine learning models train collaboratively and are rewarded in TAO according to the informational value they offer the collective.
NEAR: Recently, many AI projects within the NEAR ecosystem are in the development or funding stage, positioning NEAR to potentially become a future AI Hub.
ASI: Post-merger token of FET, AGIX, and OCEAN, likely to experience significant volatility with potential for hype.
AR: Arweave’s new token AO is about to be launched, backed by solid technology fundamentals and a promising sector.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

CARV:

CARV is a gaming-focused ID infrastructure designed to create a player-owned identity for showcasing achievements, discovering friends and games, direct monetization, and portability across platforms. Yesterday, the number of unique active wallets for the DApp exceeded 610,000. CARV has been very active recently: on April 26, CARV announced a $10 million Series A funding round; on May 31, Animoca Brands announced a strategic investment in CARV and became its node operator.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

Bitget Research: BTC Funding Rate Turns Negative, Low Liquidity Poses Risk of Sharp Decline image 0

ZKsync (ZK):

Yesterday, ZKsync opened for airdrop claims and was listed on major exchanges. The token did not meet expectations and stabilized around $2.5 initially but later fell to $2 amid the broader market downturn. Based on the current price of $0.21, ZKsync’s market cap stands at $4.4 billion, whereas Starknet's is at $7.4 billion.

Bitget (BGB):

Bitget recently launched a high-interest stablecoin savings promotion amid a declining market environment, receiving strong endorsement from the community and users. Many crypto enthusiasts within the community have promoted this promotion. Currently, Bitget's annual yield on stablecoin savings exceeds 10%, making it noteworthy.

3.3 Google Search (Global and Regional)

Bitget Research: BTC Funding Rate Turns Negative, Low Liquidity Poses Risk of Sharp Decline image 1

Global focus:

Velodrome (VELO):

U.S. representative Michael A. Collins disclosed a transaction involving Velodrome assets worth between $1,001 and $15,000 on May 17, 2024, which sparked widespread discussion in the market after the disclosure.

Regional focus:

(1) In Asia, besides the attention on ZK’s airdrop, rumors about FTX’s debt repayment completion or restart impacted the hot searches, with LUNC and FTX topping the charts in Malaysia and Singapore respectively; in South Korea, “a16z crypto” was the top trending search term yesterday.

(2) In contrast, in Europe and the Americas, Velodrome appeared in the hot searches of Poland, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada; additionally, DePIN and AI remain the most followed sectors in these regions, with FET and GRASS consistently appearing on the hot searches of multiple countries in these regions.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Magic Eden Wallet

Magic Eden is a renowned NFT marketplace backed by major VCs such as Coinbase, Paradigm, and Solana. Magic Eden announced on the X platform that a token claim feature within its wallet will launch later in the third quarter.

The Magic Eden Wallet is its mobile app, which allows users to earn "Diamond" points by trading NFTs, among other methods. Magic Eden plans to release a test link for the Magic Eden Mobile Wallet via its official X account soon, which could potentially offer a way to receive airdrops.

How to participate: 1. Follow Magic Eden Wallet's X account (https://x.com/MagicEdenWallet) and set up a reminder for posts; 2. When the account posts the invitation link, quickly access and test the app, since each release has only a few thousand spots available.

RedStone

RedStone is a modular oracle for LST and LRT, providing frequently updated, reliable, and diversified data sources for DApps and smart contracts across multiple L1 and L2 networks. The market anticipates a token launch for this project in the second half of 2024.

In 2022, RedStone raised $7 million in a seed round funding led by Lemniscap with participation from Coinbase Ventures, Blockchain Capital, Distributed Global, Lattice, Arweave, Bering Waters, Maven11, and SevenX Ventures. In 2023, Aave founder and Polygon co-founder, among others, invested in the project during its angel round.

How to participate: 1. RSG points can be received by participating in on-chain promotions and Galxe tasks released by RedStone and its partners; 2. By producing content and participating in designated promotions on the RedStone Discord server, such as the Weekly Best Content or the Hall of Fame, creators can receive RSG points.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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