Matrixport Investment Research: The market has entered the summer consolidation phase, and cautious investment is the best strategy

The latest research from Matrixport Research Institute shows that the recent focus is on:

• ETH ETF may be approved next week, and the net inflow of traditional funds on the first day may be lower than expected

• BTCs historical trend in the third quarter is weak, it is recommended to pay attention to option products

• In addition to macro data, the debate between Biden and Trump has attracted much attention from investors

ETH ETF is limited by ETH awareness and the US public holiday, and the net inflow of traditional funds on the first day may be lower than expected

The SEC is likely to approve an ETH ETF in the coming days. Most likely early next week, and these ETFs may then be launched a few days later. The ETH ETF is expected to have a fund size of about 20% of the size of the BTC ETF. This ratio is roughly consistent with the size of ETH futures relative to BTC futures, the size of ETH futures-based ETFs relative to BTC futures-based ETFs, and the market capitalization ratio of ETH and BTC. Therefore, since the BTC ETF has attracted a cumulative net inflow of $14 billion since January 2024, it is expected that the AUM of the ETH ETF in the first five months may reach $2.8 billion.

Most non-cryptocurrency investors may need more time to understand ETH, especially since it does not have a fixed supply, which may make Wall Street investors hesitant. ETH and its use cases are more complex to understand than Bitcoin, which may also lead to initial hesitation among TradeFi investors. Finally, since July 4th is a public holiday in the United States, many investors may be away for the long weekend. If the ETH ETF is launched next week, it may cause investors to be slightly disappointed in their first-day investment.

BTCs historical price trend in the third quarter was relatively calm, and it may be a good idea to focus on options products

Historically, BTC has entered the usually quiet third quarter, when BTC typically only returns around 5% over the next three months. Seasonally, the fourth quarter is usually the strongest season for the market, while the third quarter (July, August, September) is weaker, especially in August and September. However, when the market performs poorly in June (which has happened five times in the past), the market performance in July usually improves . This June seems to be no exception, showing a negative return month for the BTC market. According to independent statistics, the average return of BTC in July has been above 12% over the past 13 years.

Although the average 30-day realized volatility of BTC in the past five years was 60%, it is currently only 30%. Investors can consider using options products instead of directly facing possible market risks.

PCE data is about to be released, and the Biden-Trump debate has attracted investors attention

On the evening of the 28th, PCE data will be released. If price pressure is relieved, it may provide a basis for the Fed to cut interest rates this year . At the same time, the market is paying close attention to the debate between Biden and Trump. As of 16:30 on June 28, the market predicts that Trumps chances of winning the election have risen to 63% , with a clear lead. The market still believes that Trumps election will have a positive impact on the crypto market.

Some of the above views come from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full report of Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.