VanEck’s Solana EFT Bets on Trump’s Win: Bloomberg Analyst

• VanEck submits Solana ETF application to SEC.
• Bloomberg analyst says that the application is a bet on US elections. 
• Trump’s win could increase ETF approval chances.

Over the last months, the crypto industry has been closely following Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. These funds were expected to bring fresh institutional capital into crypto, driving prices up. 

While the effects of the approval were somewhat underwhelming, most analysts still believe that they are a key avenue for institutional adoption and legitimacy of crypto investment. Now, investors have shifted attention to Solana’s EFT, recently submitted by VanEck. However, these may hinge on a key change in the White House. 

Bloomberg Analysts Give His Take on VanEck’s Solana EFT

Almost as soon as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Ethereum ETFs , analysts began speculating about which token would be next. Most agreed that Solana would be next , and soon after, investment firm VanEck filed the first Solana EFT application. 

In response to the filing, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas shared his opinion about the likelihood of approval. He pointed out that the approval is unlikely as unlike with Ethereum, there are no Solana future contracts on the market. However, he believes that the election could change everything. 

Specifically, Balchunas explained that Trump’s win could bring a significant change in the SEC leadership, bringing a significant shift in its policies. “Just imagine Hester Peirce (or someone like that) running the SEC,” he exclaimed. 

Balchunas went on to speculate that the approval is unlikely before 2025, as the SEC needs time to deliberate on every decision. He also explains that he sees the filing as a “call option on the POTUS election,” suggesting that the investment firm is betting on Trump’s win. 

Will Trump Shake Up the SEC? 

The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is critical, not just for the country’s political future but also for regulatory changes in crypto. Currently, Trump seems to be in the lead. According to betting market Polymarket, Donald Trump currently has a 64% chance of winning the election. The current president, Joe Biden, stands at 21%, significantly behind his Republican rival. 

Source: Poly market

During his presidency, Trump was highly critical of crypto, even suggesting Bitcoin was a scam. However, he has recently completely changed his position , even claiming that he would be a “crypto president”. His reversal means that a shakeup in the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has taken a strict stance against crypto, would be very likely.  

Notably, SEC commissioner Hester Peirce , often referred to as “Crypto Mom,” was a Trump appointee in 2018, and a strong advocate for leniency when it comes to crypto regulation. As Balchunas speculated, if Trump wins, Peirce may be the next SEC Chair, shifting the agency’s stances completely. 

On the Flipside

• The election is not the only factor that could affect the likelihood of Solana ETF approval. Long-anticipated legislative changes that bring clearer rules for crypto could also have that effect. 
• Solana is not the only altcoin that could get its ETF. Another candidate is Ripple , a favorite among institutional investors. 

Why This Matters

As Bloomberg analyst Balchunas points out, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election could have significant implications for crypto regulations. This also means that Solana ETFs are unlikely to be approved this year.  

Read more about Trump’s U-turn on crypto: 
“Crypto President” Trump Nets $12M in Silicon Valley Campaign

Read more about why Binance users are selling their accounts: 
Binance Users Are Selling Accounts, Exchange Is Cracking Down