Week 26 on-chain data: ETH ETF may fall first and then rise; bottom signs have appeared

Original title: "Monetary funds reach record levels, where will the massive funds eventually flow into? | WTR 7.01"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

This week from June 24 to July 1, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $63369, the lowest price was close to $58402, and the fluctuation range reached about 7.84%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 60000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:
1. 59000-63000 is about 1.13 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000 is about 1.21 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 69%;
• The probability of not rising below 71000～74000 in the short term is 90%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The annual rate of the PCE price index in May was 2.6%, in line with the expected value of 2.6%, lower than the previous value of 2.70%.

2. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in May was 0.1%, in line with the expected value of 0.1% and lower than the previous value of 0.3%.

3. The one-year inflation rate in June is expected to be 3%, lower than the expected value of 3.2% and lower than the previous value of 3.3%.

4. The final value of the quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditures in the first quarter was 1.5%, significantly lower than the previous value of 2%. Among them, the warning signal for the Federal Reserve is that the number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the United States last week rose to 1.84 million, the highest level since the end of 2021.

5. BlackRock's $54 billion iShares 20-year and above U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) attracted $2.7 billion in inflows on Monday, the largest single-day inflow since the fund was founded in 2002.

6. ETF analyst Athanasios Psarofagis said: "It looks like investors are starting to go against the Fed again. They are betting on the Fed to cut interest rates. If they bet right, the price trend will fluctuate violently.

7. Goldman Sachs Managing Director Scott Rubner said: The new quarter (third quarter) and the new half year (the second half of this year) are when a large amount of funds are pouring into the stock market. The first two weeks of July are the best trading period of the year since 1928.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. State Street Bank and Galaxy Asset Management announced a partnership to launch a new generation of digital asset investment strategies, directly participating in the digital asset ecosystem with a total value of US$2.4 trillion.

2. CryptoQuant said that in the past three weeks, BTC has experienced an adjustment of about 15%. With the significant correction of BTC yesterday, possible signs of a local bottom have appeared.

3. Futures market: open interest has decreased by about $3 billion in the past three weeks, mainly long positions.

4. Media reports said that because the S-1 document changes of the last round of ETH spot ETFs were very "minor", the SEC can contact the issuer "at any time" to inform it of the ETF issuance date.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long-term insight

• Large net positions on exchanges
• Giant whales address Pure Land Village
• Short-term speculator cost line

(Large net positions on exchanges in the figure below)

The market suffered a very large sell-off reaction in the past few days, which is a stress test for the market; but the degree of market decline is not very high.
Relatively speaking, the market's carrying capacity is rising.

Using the two data to correspond, we can see that this sell-off is the previous sell-off by whales. This second decline is mainly the sell-off of profit-taking.

The short-term speculator cost is around 64,400. If the price cannot recover to this price within one and a half to two months, then this price will become a small pressure.

Of course, from a larger perspective, the sell-off at 64,400 will be much less than the previous sell-off at 70,000, because this price reaches the short-term cost, and they will avoid losses and generate less sell-offs.

Medium-term exploration

• Accumulation trend points
• Short-term funding cost model
• High-weight selling pressure
• BTC exchange trend net position
• Network sentiment positivity

(Accumulation trend points in the figure below)

100-1k and>10k whales are currently the main supply force on the market.
They have a better accumulation demand for BTC than other addresses.
But the overall accumulation trend points only stay at around 0.5 points, which has not yet formed a very large demand.
It may take more time to accumulate chips and repair the market.

（Figure below: Short-term funding cost model）

Red: Average cost of participants for 1-3 months
Orange: Average cost of participants for 1 week-1 month

When the orange line crosses the red line, the market will enter a state of better liquidity and funds will tend to flow into the market.
On the contrary, funds tend to be scarce.
The sustainability of the market requires the cost of younger chips to rise, so that better liquidity can be provided.
Perhaps the market is not getting worse at present.

（Figure below: High-weight selling pressure）

The high-weight selling pressure has declined to a certain extent, and the pressure faced by the market may be reduced.

（BTC exchange trend net position in the figure below）

The potential selling pressure accumulated in the exchange has shown signs of slowing down slightly,
and the situation in the market may get better over time.

（Network sentiment positivity in the figure below）

Network sentiment has shown signs of slowing down to a certain extent, and the positivity of the on-chain sentiment may still need to be restored.
The current liquidity dilemma may be due to the lack of enthusiasm of participants in the market and on-chain.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Bingtangcheng Exchange net position
• Yitai Exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the green area. Derivatives risk is low.

(Figure below: Derivatives risk factor)

Consistent with last week's expectations, ETH showed a shock adjustment. The current risk factor is still in the green area. Although it is more likely to be short squeezed in the trending market, in the current market, it is still expected to be a continuous shock this week.

(Figure below: Option Intention Transaction Ratio)

Option trading volume has dropped slightly, and the proportion of put options is at a low level.

(Figure below: Derivatives trading volume)

Derivatives trading volume is at a low level.

(Figure below: Option implied volatility)

Implied volatility has dropped slightly.
Sentiment rating: neutral

(Figure below: Profit and loss transfer)

This week, panic sentiment (orange line) continued to decline. Overall, market pessimism has eased, but the current price has fallen below the short-term holder cost line (near 64K), so we need to observe whether there is further additional selling pressure in the market.

（Newly added addresses and active addresses in the figure below）

Newly added and active addresses are at a low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a medium inflow, ETH outflows accumulate.

（Bingtangcheng Exchange net position in the figure below）

BTC exchange net position has a medium inflow.

（E-Tai Exchange net position in the figure below）

ETH exchange net position continues to outflow.

（Figure below: High-weight selling pressure）

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in an outflow state as a whole, and stablecoin purchasing power is losing a moderate amount.

（Figure below: Global purchasing power status）

Currently, the purchasing power in the Americas is the same as last week and is still losing power. The market is more inclined to fluctuate during this period.

（Figure below: USDT exchange net position）

USDT exchange net position is losing a moderate amount.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 58,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.

(The following figure shows the Coinbase off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 55000~59000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000~74000.

(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 55000~60000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000~74000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 55000,60000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000~74000.

Summary of this week:

Summary of news:

1. If ETH's ETF is approved at the beginning of next month, it is possible to fall first and then rise (Grayscale funds sell off).

2. From the current market perspective, the inflation stagnation in the first quarter has turned back to the downward channel. If the trend continues to decline in the next two months, it is possible to generate expectations of a rate cut in September.

3. The three factors that dominate the stability of the crypto market: the selling of profit-taking plates, the sentiment of short-term speculators, and the negative external factors have gradually eased.

4. In this era, the US dollar money fund has reached a record-breaking size. If the interest rate cut is implemented before and after, a large amount of funds will flow into the capital market again, including the stock market and the crypto market.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The market is under great selling pressure, which is a stress test;
2. The key factor of this decline is profit-taking;
3. The current selling at this position is relatively small, because short-term speculators attach great importance to the effect of losing money

• Market tone:
The market's carrying capacity is rising.

Medium-term exploration on the chain:

1. There is a small accumulation of addresses>10k and 100-1k;
2. The liquidity in the market may not be too bad;
3. The high-weight selling pressure has decreased to a certain extent;
4. The potential selling pressure accumulated by BTC in the exchange shows signs of a slight slowdown;
5. The network sentiment may still need time to recover.

• Market tone:
Adjustment, repair
The status of the market has improved slightly, but it still takes time to restore sentiment.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor is in the green zone, and the risk is low.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low, and the market activity is low.
3. Market sentiment status rating: neutral.
1. The overall net position of the exchange shows that BTC has a medium inflow and ETH has accumulated outflows.
2. The global purchasing power is in an outflow state as a whole, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is lost in a medium amount.
3. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 58,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
4. The probability of not falling below 57,000~61,000 in the short term is 69%; among them, the probability of not rising below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 90%.

• Market Tone:
Although the current market panic has declined, the market purchasing power has been greatly lost, and the current price has fallen below the short-term holder cost line.

This week, it is expected that without strong news stimulation, the market will continue to fluctuate around the short-term holder cost line price.

Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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