Mt. Gox Repayments: Assessing the Market Impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) by CoinShares

The long-awaited Mt. Gox repayments are poised to commence in July, marking a significant event in the cryptocurrency world. According to CoinShares , the Tokyo-based exchange, which collapsed in 2014, is preparing to distribute approximately 75,000 Bitcoin (BTC) to its creditors over the course of the month.

Background on Mt. Gox

Initially launched in 2007 as a platform for trading Magic: The Gathering Online cards, Mt. Gox pivoted to a Bitcoin exchange in 2010 under the leadership of founder Jed McCaleb. By 2014, Mt. Gox was handling over 70% of global Bitcoin transactions, making it a pivotal entity in the cryptocurrency market.

However, the exchange faced numerous security breaches, including a significant hack in June 2011 that resulted in the theft of 25,000 BTC. Subsequent hacks and operational issues culminated in the loss of approximately 744,408 BTC, leading to the exchange's insolvency and eventual shutdown in February 2014.

Current State of Play

After years of legal proceedings, the Japanese trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi now holds around 142,000 BTC and an equivalent amount of Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Creditors have been given the option to receive their repayments in cash or in kind (BTC and BCH). Many have opted for the latter, indicating a preference to retain their cryptocurrency holdings.

Market Impact Analysis

The impending distribution has raised concerns about its potential impact on the Bitcoin market. However, analysts at CoinShares believe that Bitcoin's substantial liquidity will mitigate any significant price disruptions. The staggered distribution across multiple exchanges such as Bitstamp, Kraken, and BitGo is expected to soften the impact of any sales.

Data suggests that approximately 75% of creditors opted for an early lump sum repayment, translating to around 95,000 BTC to be distributed. Of this, 30,000 BTC is allocated to entities like Bitcoinica and MtGox Investment Funds (MGIF), which have indicated they do not plan to sell their holdings immediately.

This reduces the potential market impact to roughly 75,000 BTC. Given Bitcoin's average daily exchange inflow of 32,000 BTC, the market is expected to absorb this distribution without significant volatility. Historical data shows that the market has previously handled larger inflows, such as the 150,000 BTC spike during the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Concerns

While Bitcoin is anticipated to weather the repayments with minimal disruption, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) may face more significant challenges. With a market cap of $8 billion and lower liquidity, BCH is more susceptible to price drops due to creditor sales. Analysts estimate that up to 80% of the distributed BCH could be sold, exerting substantial downward pressure on its price.

Overall, the market appears more spooked by the idea of the Mt. Gox overhang than the actual selling that will occur. The gradual and distributed nature of the repayments, combined with Bitcoin's liquidity, suggests that the market impact will be less severe than initially feared.