Cycle Capital: The actual selling pressure of BTC in Mentougou has not yet entered the market, and distribution to CEX may cause panic decline

Cycle Capital released an article analyzing the BTC sell-off in Mentougou from all angles. According to data, as of July 12th, 138,000 BTC are still in Mentougou's account address, indicating that the sell-off has not yet entered the market. The drop on July 5th was part of the expected sell-off from Mentougou. The article analyzes that Cycle Capital believes that Mentougou's creditors will sell some BTC, but not all. If Mentougou's compensation is sold out within a month, the market will face a similar situation to Germany's government sell-off in terms of the amount and time of the sell-off. According to the current demand for ETF, if there is not enough capacity to absorb, the price of BTC may further decline. If Mentougou's compensation lasts longer (2-3 months), the daily amount of BTC entering the market will not be particularly large and will not cause a one-time drop. However, due to the continued expectation of sell-off, there may be a period of volatility to digest the sell-off. This also means that it is difficult to see a major upward trend in the short term. Currently, only 1545 tokens from Mentougou have truly entered the exchange, and the rest are still in Mentougou's account, indicating that the actual sell-off has not yet entered the market. When Mentougou's BTC is distributed on several trading platform addresses on a large scale, it may cause a significant panic sell-off and form a sharp drop. When individuals sell, it may not necessarily cause a significant price drop due to dispersion and difficulty in tracking and observing.