Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.05–07.12): CPI declines, mainstream currency prices rise and fall

CPI data fell, mainstream currency prices rose and fell

Data source: https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733

Expectations for interest rate cuts have increased significantly this year, with the probability of the first rate cut in September rising to 80%, and the probability of a rate cut in July reappearing. The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise before the release of CPI data, and then fell back after the data was released. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 3.3% in May to 3% in June, the lowest growth rate since June last year; month-on-month, it turned from flat in May to a decline of 0.1% in June, a 0.1 percentage point drop from the previous month, the first negative growth since May 2020, showing signs of continued slowdown in inflation.

There are about 17 days until the next Fed meeting (August 1, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Market technical and sentiment environment analysis

Sentiment Analysis Components

Technical indicators

Price trend

BTC prices rose 0.51% and ETH prices rose 1.3% over the past week.

The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week.

The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week.

The table shows the price change rate over the past week.

Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)

In the past week, BTC and ETH fluctuated upward after forming a new dense trading area with large volumes at low levels.

The above picture shows the distribution of BTCs dense trading areas in the past week.

The above picture shows the distribution of ETHs dense trading areas in the past week.

The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.

Volume and Open Interest

Over the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on July 5; open interest for both BTC and ETH continued to decline.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle shows the trading volume, the bottom shows the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red means closing positions, yellow means slowly accumulating positions, and black means crowded state.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was highest when it fell to 7.5; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH fell synchronously.

The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average.

Event-driven

Over the past week, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise before the release of CPI data, and then fell back after the data was released.

Sentiment Indicators

Momentum Sentiment

In the past week, among Bitcoin/gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, gold was the strongest, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.

The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.

Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 12%, and short-term interest rates fell to 3.8%.

The yellow line is the highest price of USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.

The table shows the average returns of USD interest rates at different holding days in the past

Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 8.8%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average

The table shows the average return of BTC fees for different holding days in the past.

Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week remained at around 0.73, and the consistency between different varieties fell from a high level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 9.4% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 33.8% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 5.5% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 10% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.

The above picture shows [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Summarize

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fluctuated upward after heavy volume at low levels, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached their highest levels when they fell to the low point on July 5. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum is declining. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum also fell simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the entire market has maintained a weak trend in the past week. CPI data fell, and the prices of mainstream currencies rose and fell when the data was released.

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