Arthur Hayes: Don’t donate to political campaigns. All we need is a simple but profound crypto legislation

Original title: Hot Chick

Original author: Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX

Original translation: 0xjs, Golden Finance

Last summer, I traveled to the (House music) doosh doosh mecca of Ibiza, Spain. It was a professional mission for me and three friends. The organizer of the trip was a male classmate of mine from college who lived in London after graduation. He lived for European summers and organized a great trip.

On our first night, the classmate sent us an invitation to a private party at a villa on the island. Imagine Chiltern guests being taken to the Balearic Islands. Two friends lived in London and knew the people at the party; my former Hong Kong roommate and I knew no one. The two of us walked to the bar and started drinking.

A few hours later, we were in the hot, cramped room where Carlita was spinning the stove. As we danced to the music, Leonardo Dicaprio was ushered in by a long-legged girl. We witnessed something very hilarious. Leonardo's chick was pitching him on why he should take her home. We overheard snippets of the conversation and it was hilarious. I don't know if she succeeded in sleeping with a movie star, but she certainly tried her best.

The reason this story is relevant to cryptocurrencies is that a potential American emperor, Donald Trump, suddenly cares about cryptocurrencies. A few thousand voters will decide the outcome of the US presidential election in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Courting the young, politically active, and upstart crypto crowd could win Trump the election. So Trump is boosting his reputation with crypto supporters by saying all the right things. One example is his announcement that he would pardon Ross Ulbricht, the former head of the Silk Road trading platform. Ross is currently serving a life sentence for running an online marketplace that used Bitcoin as the primary payment method.

Unfortunately, this newfound political attention has caught the attention of many in our industry. The political hotties are trying to take us home, not the other way around. These feelings are misplaced. The playboys of crypto are not movie stars, but fools standing on the fringe of the party.

It frustrates me that many crypto experts who should know better are now blindly hosting gimmicky fundraisers for the Trump campaign. They mistakenly believe that Trump is sincere and that if they just donate enough money, the crypto chokehold will go away. This is pure bullshit. Trump is a savvy politician. He will say anything to anyone who wants to be re-elected. Once in office, anything to do with crypto will be a distant memory.

How can pro-crypto voters in the U.S. capitalize on the need for swing votes from both the Democratic and Republican parties? Is there a way to turn the roughly 50 million U.S. adults who hold crypto into a single voting bloc? Is there a strategy that doesn’t require any campaign contributions but ensures that a positive crypto legislation is enacted before the election? Of course there is. But it’s not easy.

Before I present my strategic thinking, I’d like readers to analyze a prophetic speech by Malcolm X. I’ll use this speech as a foil to illustrate how oppressed U.S. crypto holders/voters can achieve their goals in a divisive political environment.

After listening to Brother Malcolm, I’d like to discuss a simple piece of legislation that crypto voters should demand their elected political representatives enact into law before Election Day. It’s frustrating that crypto celebrities go out of their way to support pro-crypto politicians who do little more than build regulatory moats around Coinbase and Blackrock. If voters are going to be pro-crypto voters, legislation enacted in their name should actually benefit the industry as a whole and bring crypto jobs and opportunities to Pax Americana. Corporate fraud should not be on the menu.

Finally, I will dig into the numbers and show how a single pro-crypto voter can mathematically determine which party controls the House, the Senate, and most importantly, the presidency.

Before I get into that, I want to explain why “separation of government from money” should be a top issue for any voter, regardless of who is elected. When countries and their governing bodies have to tax their citizens on a regular basis, they will be very careful about what they ask for, lest they get voted out of office. Many of the country’s problems stem from overactive governments using inflationary taxes to do unnecessary things. For example, current levels of global military spending cannot be sustained if governments use direct taxes to pay for the military, and that will inevitably lead to conflict. What do you want: free healthcare or more AK-47s? Free college education or a fleet of F-16s? Affordable public transportation or another submarine with nuclear missiles? If the taxpayers decide, different types of public goods will be produced, which will improve the quality of life for many people.

I will refer to "Joe Biden" as the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. However, after a poor debate performance, I do not think he will end up being the Democratic nominee for president. He is Joe Biden, but rather than guessing who will replace him, I prefer to assume that he is the candidate for simplicity.

The Ballot or the Bullet

Go back with me to the 1960s in America. The niggers were getting restless and demanding political change. Malcolm X was one such radical leader who pushed for change. On April 3, 1964, he gave a speech in Cleveland, Ohio titled "The Ballot or the Bullet." The theme was how the black community could use their power as a voting bloc to decide who would be the next president and what they should get in return for their loyalty. Incumbent President Lyndon Johnson (Democrat) was running against Barry Goldwater (Republican). Johnson won reelection.

I will excerpt some passages that are relevant to this discussion. To be clear, I do not agree with everything Malcolm X said or did. Nonetheless, his observations are sharp and relevant to minority groups and cryptocurrency holders who seek political benefits under a simple majority system, who suffer from political oppression, and who are seeking political benefits under a simple majority system.

Malcolm began by laying out why Black people should put aside their differences and unite to achieve political goals that benefit all:

“Even though I remain a Muslim, I am not here tonight to discuss my religion. I am not here to try to convert you to your religion. I am not here to argue or discuss anything that we disagree on, because it is time for us to iron out our differences and realize that we better first see that we have the same problem, a common problem, a problem that will get you into hell, whether you are a Baptist, a Methodist, a Muslim, or a nationalist. Whether you are educated or illiterate, whether you live on the boulevard or in the alley, you will get into hell just like I did. We are all in the same boat, and we are all going to get into hell caused by the same man. He happens to be white. All of us have suffered from white political oppression, white economic exploitation, and social degradation in this country.”

In crypto, it doesn’t matter whether you are a maximalist of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, etc. Most importantly, whether you are a centralized exchange shareholder or a regular holder of Coinbase, there is no need to dwell on these differences. “Politicians,” or in this case the state, have a grudge against any disciple of Satoshi.

What are the similarities between the 1964 and 2024 elections?

“1964 could go down as the most explosive year in American history. The most explosive year. Why? Because it was also the year of politics. The year in which all the white politicians went back to the so-called black communities to defraud some of your and my votes. The year in which all the white political charlatans went back to your and my communities to frustrate our hopes with their false promises, with their tricks and betrayals, with false promises they did not intend to keep.”

2024 is an important election year for Pax Americana. Pax Americana is at a crossroads. Should it accept a multipolar world order, stay the course, and fight the challengers economically and militarily? The next emperor will have a big say in how America navigates this changing world order. Trump and the Republicans are paying niceties about crypto, given that a few thousand votes will determine the outcome of an election in a handful of states. Like Malcolm in 1964, I doubt Trump's sincerity. He cares about getting elected, and he'll do whatever it takes to get your vote. If Biden and the Democrats are for crypto, Trump will be against it. It's just good politics.

Malcolm then discusses why and how disenfranchised minorities can wield enormous political power.

"These 22 million victims are waking up. Their eyes are starting to open. They are starting to see things that they only paid attention to in the past. They are maturing politically. They are realizing that there are new political trends from coast to coast. When they see these new political trends, they may find that every election is so closely contested that they have to recount the votes. They had to recount the votes in Massachusetts to determine who will be the governor because the vote was so close. The same thing happened in Rhode Island, Minnesota, and many other places in the United States. The same thing happened when Kennedy and Nixon ran for president. The vote was so close that they had to recount the votes. So, what does this mean? It means that when the white race is close, and the black people have their own voting bloc, they decide who will be in the White House and who will be in the cold [or in jail if you are Trump or a Trump supporter]."

According to Coinbase, 50 million Americans (20% of the total population) own cryptocurrencies. If this group of people voted together, they could easily decide which clown will be on the throne. The split between the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States presents a unique opportunity to gain major political concessions. It is important to realize that prioritizing party affiliation over Satoshi Nakamoto will only lead to failure.

Malcolm went on to harshly criticize tokenism. We should heed this warning. American crypto holders should not settle for some meaningless government stance from either the Biden or Trump administration. The only acceptable thing is pro-crypto legislation signed into law.

“They got all the black votes, and when they got the votes, the black people got nothing. All they did when they came to Washington was give some big black people good jobs. Those big black people didn’t need good jobs, they already had jobs. It’s a disguise, it’s a ruse, it’s a betrayal, it’s a whitewash.”

I strongly urge readers to read the entire speech carefully. Just keep in mind the racial, economic, and political context in which Malcolm X spoke. I used his black vs. white rhetoric as a foil to illustrate my point: if the tens of millions of crypto holders in the US wanted to, they could wrest favorable policies from the government because the politicians are hungry for reelection.

For those who think that immediate substantive progress will take too long or be too difficult, remember that American politicians are currently engaging in moral maneuvers to continue to fund Israel’s war with Hamas. Bombardier Bibi “The Bedouin Butcher” Netanyahu is waging a campaign of genocide against defenseless Palestinian civilians, and the world is witnessing this campaign in real time because he wants to exterminate the ideology of Hamas and its thousands of fighters, who are sworn enemies of the Israeli state. Regardless of their personal views, no American politician is willing to stand up for human lives because it means angering the powerful Israel lobby, who, due to their overwhelming financial resources, can run negative ad after negative ad that reduces the politician’s chances of reelection. The primary goal of any politician is to get re-elected, and this drive for self-preservation is even stronger in the capital of the empire because of the vast wealth that comes with being a long-term congressman or senator.

Take House Representative Nancy Pelosi, for example. I learned the following using ChatGPT, a tool that provides access to official public disclosures of her net worth. In 1987, when she joined Congress, Pelosi disclosed an estimated net worth of $3.64 million. By 2023, her disclosed net worth estimate capped at $97.7 million, a nearly 27-fold increase. ChatGPT estimates that she earned $5.7 million in salary as a congresswoman during her 37-year tenure. Most of her wealth comes from her savvy investments in the stock and real estate markets. Given that elected members of the House and Senate are allowed to engage in insider trading, it’s no wonder she’s a better trader than Steve Cohen.

Pelosi is the living embodiment of the political dream of America’s governing class. She has amassed a generational fortune as a public servant. Is it any wonder that politicians will say anything to please you in order to stay in power?

Malcolm X once suggested that cryptocurrency holders have power as a political minority in a divisive electoral environment, so what should we protest about?

What is money?

Money can be dirty fiat, heavy gold, or shiny Bitcoin, but what is it? The purpose of money is to transfer energy across time and space through physical or digital forms of communication. Lynn Alden's ledger theory of money is a good way to think about what money is.

Understanding the blockchain from first principles can make the concept come alive. A blockchain is simply a series of messages that are cryptographically hashed and linked together in sequence, which are placed in a publicly readable ledger. With Bitcoin, we can read and write to this public ledger. Bitcoin is digital speech.

This is another example of a concept that many readers understand a little too well. TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, etc. are all services that allow you to read and write to centralized databases containing your and other users’ messages. These messages take the form of videos or text content. These platforms enable digital speech.

In most liberal democratic societies, governments consider information posted and consumed on social media platforms to be protected speech. Therefore, it is also a reality that users are free to express their opinions without government interference. Moreover, the companies that provide these services are not responsible for the speech on their platforms.

Let’s take the example of Facebook during the 2016 US presidential election. The Democratic team claimed that the evil Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had frustrated “democracy” by using Facebook to influence people to vote for Donald Trump, who in their view was a petty tyrant. It follows that Facebook condoned treason and that its CEO should be held criminally responsible for the actions of a foreign country on its platform. However, this did not happen; thanks to free speech laws, Facebook and its executives were not punished in any way.

If the internet and the information it contains is protected speech, then why should Bitcoin and any other blockchain-backed cryptocurrency or token be treated differently? Both use speech to provide services. The fact that Bitcoin is a monetary instrument does not make it lose its constitutional protection against government interference.

This is a reading of a document written more than two centuries ago, when steam engines were a new technology. Yet, in the United States, the Constitution is analyzed this way. The Second Amendment gives you the right to bear arms. In the 18th century, the most advanced weapon was a flintlock. In modern times, the gun lobby in the United States and many Supreme Court decisions have interpreted this to mean that you have the right to carry an automatic assault rifle. Absurdity is the name of the game in the land of the free.

Let me make a simple statement that should realign crypto policy to comply with free speech:

“Cryptocurrencies and tokens that reside on or are powered by a blockchain are forms of protected speech. All laws that apply to protect free speech apply to cryptocurrency users or intermediaries. Any law or regulation that restricts the ability of a person or duly constituted entity to hold or transfer cryptocurrency does not apply.”

That’s all we need to fully clarify the current state of cryptocurrency regulation. Let’s dive into what practical impacts would occur if such a law were passed.

Crypto Clarity

If this simple bill is enacted into law, it will have a profound impact on how various regulatory agencies treat cryptocurrencies. Questions will abound as to which agency has jurisdiction over cryptocurrency-related conduct. The only way to clarify the boundaries is through legal precedent achieved through adversarial, public court cases. That’s the way it should be. Judges appointed to adjudicate laws enacted by elected representatives will determine the extent of free speech enjoyed by cryptocurrencies.

But in the meantime, Pax Americana will be the most favorable place to do crypto. Doing crypto could mean opening your own exchange, creating a new DeFi protocol, building decentralized infrastructure, or pooling money for investing or trading. It means permissionless innovation. The diehards under Pax Americana are nostalgic for this kind of innovation. Did John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, or Henry Ford ever beg government officials to overhaul the oil, steel, or auto industries? Of course not, they just got things done, building entire industries and industrial processes that put agrarian America on the path to becoming an empire.

For the politicians who vote to make it happen, it means they get credit for creating high-paying jobs. It means using their privileged position on subcommittees to buy up shares in publicly traded cryptocurrency exchanges and miners first, thereby enriching themselves like Congresswoman Pelosi. If they want to engage in insider trading, at least they can do it while the crypto business is booming.

This sounds like happy days for crypto holders and politicians. Is anyone upset by these developments?

Opposition – Traditional Finance Is Terrible

TradFi would be upset if crypto was considered protected speech and fiat money was not. Their lobbyists would vehemently oppose any such crypto free speech legislation. So I invite them to join us on this journey.

Financial regulatory rules that have been in place for decades do not protect consumers, they simply serve to politically exempt bureaucrats from the various bailouts that continue to be imposed on the financial sector. After every crisis, politicians need to show they are doing something and impose more ridiculous rules and regulations on traditional financial institutions.

Fiat money (like the dollar bill) and commodity money (like gold) should also be considered speech and therefore protected. As mentioned before, these are all forms of money that convey who owns how much energy in time and space. There should be an equal, level playing field between all forms of money.

Let’s modify the proposed bill slightly:

“Any form of money, such as government-issued currency, precious metals such as gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies and tokens that reside on or are powered by a blockchain, are protected forms of speech. All applicable laws to protect free speech apply to cryptocurrency users or intermediaries. Any law or regulation that restricts the ability of a person or a formally established entity to hold or transfer cryptocurrency does not apply.”

There is a problem. Since most financial regulators will be ineffective, fractional reserve banks and other highly leveraged traditional financial intermediaries may engage in highly risky activities. All financial government bailouts should be eliminated to alleviate costs to the public.

Let’s amend the bill again:

“Any form of money, such as government-issued currency, precious metals such as gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies and tokens that reside on or are powered by a blockchain, are protected forms of speech. All laws that apply to the protection of free speech apply to cryptocurrency users or intermediaries. No law or regulation that restricts the ability of a person or legally constituted entity to hold or transfer cryptocurrency applies.

No financial institution may be bailed out in any way, form, or form using public funds. No public financial institution (a comprehensive list of all relevant entities) may receive any funding from the federal government.”

The government should not guarantee any amount of bank deposits. Instead, it should require banks to put fiat currencies on a public blockchain to enable triple-entry accounting. If all fiat currencies circulate on a public crypto ledger, potential depositors can verify the health of any financial institution in real time.

The central bank and any other public financial institution, such as the housing mortgage policy banks (e.g., Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac), must not receive any funds from the central government if they go bankrupt. The central bank can print all the money it wants, but if its losses deplete all equity capital, the central bank goes bankrupt. This will erode public trust in fiat currency, but the goal is to ensure that all financial institutions, public and private, are on board and cannot use public funds in times of trouble.

Opposition - Crypto Crony Capitalism

Another voice of opposition comes from within. Many American companies and individuals with large private crypto business interests want to use this opportunity to push legislation to build regulatory moats around their businesses. If these Uncle Toms are found to be involved in such transactions, their customers should publicly discredit them. No one should support any crypto business that uses the political process to benefit itself at the expense of collective financial freedom.

Are there any rules?

Of course there is. If you steal or defraud, you are breaking the law. If you post false statements on the internet with the intent to deceive others for personal gain, you will be punished. The same is true for cryptocurrencies. The industry does not need any new laws to punish behavior that is already illegal.

Getting Things Done

The best time to get concrete results is before the November election. The bill I am proposing is only 113 words. There is a reason why it is short. It is easy to understand; anyone can read it in a few minutes. This means that every elected representative can digest the contents of the bill immediately, and it is less likely to be hijacked by acolytes who serve as conduits for highly paid lobbyists.

The bill needs supporters in Congress and the Senate to bring it to their respective chambers for discussion and, ultimately, a vote. The crypto lobby can select several politicians in each chamber who are in hot reelection campaigns. The message is: sponsor this bill, and the crypto voters in your district will support you.

Once the bill is in place, it’s time to pressure both Democrats and Republicans to support it. The same carrot-and-stick approach applies: support the bill and the crypto voters in your district will vote for you; if you don’t, they’ll vote for your opponent.

Finally, assuming the bill passes the House and Senate, Biden must sign the bill into law. American voters don’t have to limit themselves to a single party to vote for congressmen, senators, and presidents. So a voter could vote for a Republican congressman or senator in their district who supports the bill, or they could vote for Biden for president, even though he’s a Democrat.

This is more effective than hoping Trump keeps his promises on various pro-crypto policy proposals, since this bill could become law in a matter of weeks. Look at how fast lawmakers moved when they approved more weapons for Ukraine and Israel. Things happen at super-light speed when they are motivated by self-interest (i.e., their defense industry stock portfolios).

After the election, pro-crypto voters will lose all leverage. The next election will be in two years, mostly involving members of Congress serving two-year terms. Biden or Trump will not spend the same political capital supporting cryptocurrency policies because it will not directly affect their reelection chances or the majority of elected officials in their respective parties.

Remember, after the election, the drumbeat of war will intensify. The only reason Iran and Russia have not been more directly targeted by the United States and NATO is that Biden does not want oil prices to rise before Election Day. Trump assassinated Qassem Soleimani, a key general in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, during his first term. He will not hesitate to bomb Iran at Israel's request. All of which suggests that once the bombs start flying, the question of crypto freedom will be quickly forgotten.

ELECTORAL MATH

It’s nice to dream, but is it possible to become a reality? Using ChatGPT, I created a model to analyze the ability of a single bloc of crypto voters to decide congressional, senate, and presidential elections.

ASSUMES:

1. The biggest assumption is that every one of the 50 million adults who hold crypto are registered to vote and are single bloc pro-crypto voters.

2. The split among crypto voters is 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans.

3. Turnout in 2024 is 69.40%, the same as in 2020. I use 2020 because that was the last presidential election year.

4. Since Coinbase does not provide detailed data on the number of cryptocurrency holders in each state, I will allocate voters by state based on the number of registered voters in the 2020 presidential election.

5. Finally, I assume that voters voted along party lines in previous elections. This means that I only care about voters who cross party lines in the 2024 election. For example, if Democrats beat Republicans in a congressional race by 1,000 votes in 2022, then in order to flip the election in 2024, I only care about registered crypto-holding Democrats voting for Republicans.

Strategy

The Democrats control the Presidency and the Senate. They are clearly trying to do whatever is necessary to maintain control of the presidency, which gives them enormous control over various branches of the US government. The message to the party leadership is simple: enact this pro-crypto legislation, or the pro-crypto lobby will give the Republicans control of all three branches of government. If the Democrats cooperate, the pro-crypto lobby can hand all three branches of government to the Democrats.

Since the Democrats do not control the House, some of the Republican members at risk (four to be exact) must be threatened with expulsion if they do not cross party lines and vote for the bill.

Does this work mathematically? Yes, let's look at the numbers.

Congressional Races

ChatGPT provided me with the results for the 2022 Congressional elections. I tallied the number of votes received by the winner and runner-up in each district, as well as their respective political parties.

The Republicans hold 48 seats that could be taken by the Democrats if every Republican crypto holder in these races crossed party lines. This would swing the House of Representatives to the Democrats.

Senate Races

Senators serve six-year terms, as opposed to House members. Therefore, I asked ChatGPT for the results of the 2018 Senate elections. Those elected in 2018 must run for reelection this year.

The Republicans hold 9 seats that could be taken by the Democrats if every Republican crypto holder in these races crossed party lines. This would expand the Democratic majority currently in the Senate.

Presidential Races

ChatGPT provided me with the 2020 election results for each state. Each state has a certain number of electoral votes, and a presidential candidate needs 270 of them to win.

If every Republican crypto holder in a handful of states crossed party lines, 115 electoral votes would go to the Democratic candidate. This would ensure a win for Biden.

If you are interested in my model and supporting data, please contact me; I'll be happy to provide them.

Hard Work

The hard work is not raising money from wealthy American crypto holders. Not a penny should be donated to political campaigns. The hard work is convincing the vast majority of crypto holders to become a single bloc of voters and go to the polls. That's what the millions of dollars raised by various pro-crypto lobbying groups should be spent on.

If Brian Armstrong really wants to be an advocate for pro-crypto legislation, as many of the touting articles about his political activities describe, then he should collect digital signatures from Coinbase US users in support of the proposed legislation. That way, politicians know that crypto holders are serious about wanting to push for change in an organized way.

What I’ve described is not easy, and more importantly, it’s not about the amount of campaign contributions. It’s about incentivizing crypto holders to hold their elected representatives accountable to achieving meaningful change. Doing this difficult thing means that any politician who wants to get into a lucrative job in Washington, DC can’t cross over to crypto, knowing that crypto holders will go out and vote with their wallets.

Nonpartisan

Some readers may think this article is a veiled attempt to poison the minds of pro-crypto Trump supporters. I am not a member of any political party and don’t care who wins the US presidential election. The ruling party has the means and incentives to stay in power at all costs. This is even more true if the ruling party does something questionable to prevent the opposition from taking power. That’s why it’s more effective to work with the Democrats. If the opposite were true, I’d advocate for supporting the Republicans. The point is that in a highly polarized two-party system, partisanship works against achieving your single-group policy goals.

Copy Copy

If crypto voters in the U.S. can pass a simple, yet profound pro-crypto legislation, it will be highly publicized. It will therefore politically activate crypto holders in other jurisdictions where a small, vocal, and focused minority voting bloc can achieve legislative results.

Look at how quickly the Hong Kong and London stock exchanges launched or planned to launch bitcoin spot ETFs after the U.S. launched a bitcoin spot ETF. Nation-state competition is our friend. Suppose there is a serious effort to use this unique moment in history to push for a transformative, simple, yet effective pro-crypto legislation to be passed in the U.S. In that case, non-Americans should contribute to the cause.

Helping this cause means shaming the individuals and companies that propose legislation rife with crypto crony capitalism. Helping this cause means analyzing and providing feedback on serious proposals. Helping this cause means demanding that those who claim to support crypto in U.S. politics not accept empty platitudes from politicians seeking reelection, but instead demand concrete action immediately before the vote. Finally, if your country is a representative democracy with highly polarized political parties and no single party holding an overwhelming majority, helping this cause means organizing similar campaigns in your country.

Ideas Matter

Over a year ago, I wrote an article about creating a synthetic dollar using long Bitcoin and short perpetual swaps. Ethena used this article as inspiration, added their own spin on the idea, and built the fastest growing stablecoin ever. They did it the hard way, and it wasn’t easy. They were so successful that my inbox is full of emails from founders pitching the next “Ethena killer.”

I don’t think the ideas presented in this article are truly original. However, I hope that by presenting this article, many in the industry will read it and prompt motivated and savvy politicians to take action now. Don’t waste this opportunity. Because if they do, the hot chicks at the party will go visit another man. Come November 6, the loyal politicians will once again be stuck in the lurch, watching the world pass them by.

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