Bitcoin ‘real bull run’ out of reach as retail demand metric hits 3-year low

A metric aimed at representing retail interest in Bitcoin has just hit its lowest point in three years, and crypto analysts say a rebound is needed before the “real bull run” can begin.

“Bitcoin retail investor demand is at a 3-year low,” CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju wrote in a July 18 X post , basing his claim on the average monthly change in demand for Bitcoin ( BTC ) among retail investors — which has fallen below negative 15% over the past 30 days.

“It’s measured by the 30-day change in total transfer volume for transactions under $10K,” Ju explained.

While institutions generally execute larger Bitcoin transactions, many analysts and traders believe that major price rallies for Bitcoin cannot begin until retail investor interest surges.

“The real bull run typically begins with massive buying volume driven by retail investors,” CryptoQuant contributor Minkyu Woo  explained , suggesting that an uptick in retail investors generally boosts market sentiment.

“We have not yet seen this volume from retail investors,” he added.

However, in April, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck told Cointelegraph that the majority of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the United States are likely from retail investors .

“I was surprised, but I don’t think it’s traditional investors yet. I still think 90% of the flows are retail,” van Eck told Cointelegraph on April 11.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in the United States fell by 87% on July 17 compared to the previous day, recording a total of $53.3 million across the 11 tracked products, according to Farside.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is struggling to hold onto a crucial support level that traders believe is necessary before it can move into the next price bracket.

On July 17, Bitcoin ended a 27-day streak of trading below $65,000 , reaching $65,686, before retracing back to $63,521. It has yet to surface above the level since.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $63,975, according to CoinMarketCap data .

Related: Bitcoin’s next leg could hit $110K, despite ‘lower highs and lower lows’

Meanwhile, search interest for the term “Bitcoin” — tracked over the past 12 months — has dropped 44% over the past three months since the Bitcoin halving to a score of 43, down almost 57% since Bitcoin reached all-time highs of $73,679 on March 13, according to Google data .

This indicator, which often spikes during major Bitcoin events, tends to give insight into retail investors’ general interest.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.