Variant: How do we predict market trends?

Original title: "Things We're Excited About in Crypto"

Original author: Variant

Original translation: Peisen, BlockBeats

Editor's note:

Variant team members have made different judgments on the future market direction, including predictions for crypto products, infrastructure development, cyclical shifts in applications, and AI agents. BlockBeats translated the original text as follows:

This summer, the Variant team spent time looking ahead to the rest of 2024 and what might happen in 2025. Here are the key points we're focusing on as we explore the next wave of cryptocurrency development.

We look forward to seeing your thoughts and predictions about the outlook for cryptocurrency in the coming year—welcome to share with us on X (@variantfund) or Warpcast (/variant).

Jesse

Some of my expectations for crypto products in 2024-2025 (a brief list, not comprehensive):

• Mobile becomes the default choice.

• Stablecoin infrastructure is strong enough to help global fintech adoption and accelerate institutional and regulatory acceptance.

• Prediction markets emerge in unexpected new forms.

• NFTs undergo another amazing evolution.

• Interactions between creator tools/token issuance platforms become more interesting and secure.

• Farcaster channels evolve into wallets/DAOs and make strange and significant changes.

• Telegram strengthens mini-programs/wallets/payment functions.

• Frames/blinks found large-scale social mini-programs, validating the "no interface" marketing model as a way to start protocol/market liquidity.

• Data DAO/tokenized market attracts new users to participate and earn tokens.

• For crypto native users, real risk participation returns to token distribution, leading to more loyal and engaged users/holders.

Some developments in crypto infrastructure I expect in 2024-2025 (brief list, not comprehensive):

• Institutions start to participate in staking.

• Chain/wallet abstraction matures enough that users finally enjoy a superior user experience (this is the result of work on scalability/interoperability/intention, etc.).

• Modularization matures, and second-generation frameworks package integrated modules to solve fragmentation problems while maintaining customizability.

• ZK makes breakthrough progress at the intersection of privacy/off-chain data/on-chain actions.

• Security vulnerabilities become more rare (e.g. in DeFi/interfaces).

• Decentralized computing starts to compete on cost and performance.

• MEV (maximum profitable value) market structure matures, optimistically benefiting users.

Li

I think the following developments will occur in cryptocurrencies in the next 6 months to a year:

• Open source AI turns to cryptocurrencies for profit.

• Decentralized AI and computing gradually heat up.

• DePIN allows more people to start earning their first cryptocurrencies.

• The bad incentives caused by financialization reach a critical point.

Alana

Some of my predictions for crypto in 2024/2025:

• Block/CashApp launches a stablecoin.

• There is a third ETF, but not the one people expect.

• PayPal starts offering a stablecoin with a yield (likely a modification of PYUSD) and gains significant adoption in Venmo.

• The Human Verification Project reaches 100M+ users.

• A host sets his own NFT as his profile picture.

• Farcaster reaches over 3M users and starts offering a meaningful mobile-first distribution.

• The breakthrough use case for AI x Crypto is community owned and trained models.

• The hype around the decentralized GPU market this cycle is ultimately just that, hype as supply shortages ease and new chips emerge.

• We see significant use cases for decentralized training + inference emerge as centralized clouds start to develop policies about what types of models can run on their servers, but this will take at least two years to really develop (as regulation is slow).

• The developer experience for building on Bitcoin improves dramatically.

• A well-known traditional finance figure publishes a discussion about Helium (or other DePin projects).

• A hot L2 decides to become its own L1.

• At least half of the predictions were wrong.

Cooper

Some current year-end predictions:

• Shared sequencer finally launched.

• Many proof markets enter testnet phase.

• Rollup technology skepticism gradually decreases as its decentralization progresses.

• Ethereum roadmap becomes clearer.

• ZK applications go into production and are actually used.

• Sharding research becomes a hot topic again.

Derek

In 2024-2025, I think we will shift from the infrastructure to the application part of the cycle. Some specific ideas:

• 10+ large fintechs launch their own stablecoins.

• ETFs start participating in staking.

• A crypto consumer app on Base reaches 10M+ weekly active users.

• Every traditional finance giant tokenizes their products.

• A crypto prediction market reaches $1B/month in volume in some category outside of politics.

• Bitcoin is used as a reserve asset for major global currencies.

• A top 20 US bank borrows using DeFi infrastructure.

• A DePin network grows to 10M+ users.

• A major AAA studio develops a blockchain-based game.

• Decentralized exchange volume exceeds centralized exchange volume at some point.

• A mini-game on Telegram/Ton reaches 1B players.

Geoff

I expect that in 12 months, there will be more clarity around the use cases and purpose of platforms for agent intelligence in crypto.

In the interim, I think several applications will gain traction and define the first generation of viable use cases. These leading applications will drive the network effects of agent platforms and influence which platforms become the primary gaming point.

The first step in this sequence is to build compelling user experiences that leverage agents. I think the following use cases have the best chance of gaining early adoption:

• Token discovery, research, and trading.

• Airdrops and mining.

• Gaming: agents as playable characters and NPCs.

• AI companions.

• Autonomous content producers.

I’m very much looking forward to seeing the wave of innovation in these and other use cases. It’s going to be an exciting time to be a cryptocurrency user!

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