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Mpox outbreak spurs high-stakes betting on Polymarket

Mpox outbreak spurs high-stakes betting on Polymarket

GrafaGrafa2024/08/19 06:45
By:Mahathir Bayena

The World Health Organization's (WHO) recent declaration of the Mpox outbreak, commonly known as monkeypox, as a public health emergency of international concern has triggered significant betting activity on Polymarket, a blockchain-powered prediction platform.

With the memory of the Covid-19 pandemic still fresh, there is heightened public and media attention on the Mpox situation, leading to high-stakes wagers on whether the outbreak will escalate to pandemic status in 2024.

Polymarket bettors currently estimate a 20% chance that Mpox will be declared a pandemic by the WHO this year. 

This speculation has been partly fueled by an editorial from the Associated Press, which questioned the potential for Mpox to evolve into a global pandemic.

As of August 17, 2024, various bets have been placed on Polymarket, including whether confirmed cases of Mpox will be reported in the United States by the end of August, with odds at 50%, and whether the virus will be detected by September, with a 77% probability.

Another bet speculates on whether there will be 100 confirmed cases in the U.S. before October, with the odds currently at 28%. 

Additionally, there's a 72% chance, according to bettors, that more than 10 U.S. citizens will contract Mpox.

Despite the growing concerns, scientists emphasise that Mpox spreads more slowly than Covid-19, and the risk to the general population remains low in countries without ongoing outbreaks.

As the situation develops, Polymarket provides a unique perspective on public sentiment and speculation regarding the potential for Mpox to become a major global health crisis.

However, whether these predictions will align with reality remains uncertain, as the world closely monitors the outbreak.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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