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Harris's chances of winning are soaring: Where will crypto go if she is elected?

Harris's chances of winning are soaring: Where will crypto go if she is elected?

BlockBeatsBlockBeats2024/08/19 08:59
By:BlockBeats

Harris was once again absent from an important crypto event, much to everyone’s dismay. However, her approval ratings are still steadily rising.

Original title: "Harris's winning rate soars: If elected, where will crypto go? "
Original author: 0xamuel, 4Alpha Research


On the evening of August 14, Eastern Time, the Democratic Party of the United States held an online town hall meeting "Crypto4Harris" to counter Trump's influence in the cryptocurrency industry and hope to win the support of about 40 million Americans who hold cryptocurrencies for Kamala Harris.


However, the media previously reported that Harris would attend in person and discuss with guests such as entrepreneur Mark Cuban and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci. This should have been Harris' first positive interaction with the crypto community, but unexpectedly, Harris once again missed the event.


At the meeting, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer stood up for Harris, promising to enact laws supporting cryptocurrency if Harris was elected president. However, Harris herself was absent from the meeting, which caused dissatisfaction among many viewers and raised serious doubts about her position.


Nevertheless, as news of the event continues to be released, the possibility of Harris becoming the next US president continues to rise. According to Polymarket data, Harris's winning rate was about 40% before the event was scheduled; after the event was announced on August 8, her winning rate was tied with Trump for the first time (49%); with the event held on the 14th, Harris's winning rate further increased to 53% (at the time of writing this article), while Trump's was 44%.


At the same time, the price of Harris's concept meme coin Kamala Horris ($KAMA) has also been rising. According to Coingecko data, as of this writing, the price of $KAMA has reached $0.0131, up nearly 47% from the low of $0.0089 on August 4. Previously, $KAMA had soared to $0.038 as Biden withdrew from the election. In contrast, Trump's concept coin MAGA ($TRUMP) has fallen by more than 60% from its high a month ago.


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Harris did not attract much attention as Biden's running mate before Biden made it clear that he would withdraw from the election. Trump initially ignored his rival and publicly emphasized that Harris was very opposed to cryptocurrency. But now, the situation seems to have changed, and support for Harris is growing in both traditional and crypto markets. So, will Harris really be elected? If she becomes the president of the United States, what impact will it have on the crypto market? And how can Trump break the deadlock and turn the situation around?


Indifferent attitude


Unlike Trump's hostile attitude towards cryptocurrencies when he was the US president, Harris seems to have always maintained an indifferent and conservative attitude towards this emerging field. She has never paid enough attention to cryptocurrencies and is even regarded by the outside world as "not very cold".


First of all, as the vice president of the United States, Harris mainly focuses on more traditional macro areas, such as economic recovery, COVID-19 response, environmental issues, and racial equality. Judging from her financial disclosures, Harris and her husband Douglas Emhoff prefer to invest in stable and traditional assets, such as US Treasuries and emerging market stocks. This investment portfolio shows that Harris is particularly cautious in choosing emerging technologies and financial instruments, and she seems to prefer to keep a certain distance from high-risk cryptocurrencies.


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Secondly, although Harris had served as a senator and state attorney general in California and had contact with Silicon Valley's tech giants, this did not translate into her public support or involvement in cryptocurrency. Even as cryptocurrency has gained increasing attention in Silicon Valley and the entire technology industry, Harris has not expressed clear views on cryptocurrency policy during her tenure in public office, nor has she actively participated in related legislative or regulatory discussions in Congress or other public occasions. This silence further demonstrates her cautious attitude in this area.


Furthermore, even during her tenure as vice president, Harris's position on cryptocurrency has not changed significantly. She has neither participated in or promoted any major cryptocurrency-related policies, nor has she made any official statements in support of or against cryptocurrency. In stark contrast to her active involvement in the fields of environment, education, and healthcare, Harris's "absence" in the field of cryptocurrency stands out.


Overall, before "officially" running for the next US president, Harris' attitude towards cryptocurrency can be described as quite "indifferent", which may be due to her caution about the risks and uncertainties in this field. Although there is a certain connection with the technology industry, her investment and policy choices are obviously more inclined to safety and stability. Compared with Trump, who is a businessman and dares to take risks, Harris is undoubtedly more conservative.


"False transformation"


In order to win the election, Harris seems to have begun to make some changes. Her campaign team recently recruited two consultants with cryptocurrency backgrounds: David Plouffe and Gene Sperling. Plouffe was the campaign manager and senior adviser to former US President Obama. After leaving the White House in 2013, he actively involved in the field of cryptocurrency and served as a global strategic adviser to Binance Global Advisory Board and Alchemy Pay. Another Sperling who joined Harris' team served on the board of directors of Ripple and served as an important economic adviser in the Clinton and Obama administrations.


These actions appear to be Harris's emphasis on cryptocurrency, and she is working hard to establish connections with the crypto industry. The addition of the two advisers may also provide her with some support and help in winning the election and formulating cryptocurrency policies. However, do these "surface efforts" really reflect her change of attitude? The answer seems to be no.


Previously, there were rumors that Harris would attend and speak at the Bitcoin conference held at the end of July. As we all know, Trump announced that he would attend the conference even after being shot, and he did express at the meeting that he would formulate a series of crypto-friendly policies. The crypto market is very much looking forward to how the two candidates will argue at the conference. However, the result was disappointing. David Bailey quickly confirmed that Harris would not attend, and in the end she did not attend.


Of course, considering that Harris had just been nominated as a presidential candidate and was busy with affairs, it might be understandable that she failed to attend the conference. But then, at a virtual roundtable organized by California Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna, Harris's absence again caused widespread doubts in the crypto industry. At the meeting, well-known crypto industry representatives including Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, and Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams had dialogues with Democratic officials. As a representative of the Democratic Party, Harris should have attended the meeting. Therefore, Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss publicly questioned the reason why Harris did not attend the meeting on the X platform to express his dissatisfaction.


Harris's chances of winning are soaring: Where will crypto go if she is elected? image 2


Perhaps due to these factors, the dialogue between crypto representatives and Democratic representatives at the roundtable was not smooth. Industry executives failed to reach a consensus with the Democratic Party, but instead made harsh criticisms of government officials. Conway and other large donors expressed strong dissatisfaction with the government's empty promises. This tension shows the differences in policy positions between the crypto industry and the Democratic government, and once again deepened the crypto industry's doubts about Harris: Does she really value cryptocurrency?


Harsh policies may continue


Today, Harris has once again missed important crypto-related events, which has disappointed everyone. However, her approval rating is still rising steadily. As a member of the crypto industry, we have to think: If Harris wins the election, what impact will this have on the cryptocurrency market?


In my previous article "From Trump to Biden: The Evolution and Impact of US Cryptocurrency Policy", I mentioned that the Biden administration has adopted stricter supervision and tax transparency measures in the crypto market. Although these measures have reduced market uncertainty to a certain extent, they have also aroused concerns and opposition from the crypto community. As a Democratic candidate, it may be difficult for Harris to break this established framework in terms of policy.


Arca Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman has pointed out that while Trump's election may be more favorable to the cryptocurrency market, Harris's victory would not be as bad as some people fear. He also mentioned that Democratic heavyweights Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have recently supported some bills that are favorable to cryptocurrencies, indicating that attitudes towards cryptocurrencies within the Democratic Party are changing.


However, are these changes enough? Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, pointed out on X that since Harris chose two anti-cryptocurrency officials in the Biden administration (Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti) to participate in her team, she may continue Biden's hostile policies.


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You know, Trump has clearly proposed a plan to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and even considered using Bitcoin to solve the US dollar debt problem. These bold remarks are currently unmatched by the Democratic Party. Given Harris's past actions and the Democratic Party's long-standing harsh policies, I personally find it hard to believe that she will propose loose policies. Therefore, I am deeply concerned about the cryptocurrency market after Harris becomes president in the future.


Trump: The market favors it


As mentioned earlier, Trump's advantage lies in his consistent crypto-friendly stance. From releasing multiple series of NFTs, to hosting NFT equity dinners, to risking his life to attend the Bitcoin conference, Trump's performance is undoubtedly more "sincere" compared to Biden's hasty launch of his own memes to win the favor of the crypto community when he was far behind, and Harris's seemingly gorgeous moves of recruiting crypto teams and conducting meetings.


Harris's chances of winning are soaring: Where will crypto go if she is elected? image 4


From the perspective of the crypto market, whether it is the relatively loose policies during Trump's presidency or the recent craze for Trump-related Memes, the crypto market is clearly more inclined to him.


In addition, Trump recently held a Space event with crypto leader Musk at X. Although the entire conversation did not mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrency, Trump's initiative to contact Musk undoubtedly gained another wave of favorability in the crypto circle. This positive move shows that Trump seems to be trying to consolidate his support in the crypto community and show his interest and openness in the field.


Although we can criticize him for these actions and speeches that may be just "painting cakes" to win votes, the crypto market is obviously more willing to accept Trump's "big cake" compared to the Democratic Party's long-term harsh policies. After all, every time a political event related to Trump is reported, it has brought a significant rise in the cryptocurrency market. In the face of visible benefits, perhaps we don't have to expect too much from the untouchable and illusory Harris policy.


Written at the end


In general, Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrency seems to be still groping. Although she has recently taken some measures to try to get closer to the crypto community, her actions and remarks always seem to contradict each other, and her position is still not clear enough. Personally, compared with Trump, it is difficult for me to have enough confidence in Harris at this stage. For the crypto market, whether Harris's lead can really bring benefits still needs time to verify. As the election campaign progresses, it may be a good idea to continue to pay attention to her movements in this area, and perhaps there will be clearer signals.


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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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