Crypto Market Outlook in September: Optimistic about BTC Ecosystem, Solana’s Cold Reception May Be a Bottom-Buying Opportunity

Original author: Yuzhong Kuangshui, crypto KOL

GM September Outlook is here.

September is still a dangerous month for me, and I will not consider making too many transactions (currently short).

Wait.

This content aims to describe the tracks and targets that I will focus on in September from my personal perspective in a simpler and more precise language.

TLDR

1. Optimistic about $BTC ecology, BTC staking, wBTC competitors ($T) and inscriptions/runes ($SATS $ORDI), and $RUNE;

2. Optimistic about DeFi's Uniswap v4 $UNI, which is the most important catalyst for the current DeFi ecology. ($COW is also making some small moves); 3. The cooling of Solana ecosystem may give us an opportunity to buy at the bottom. I think $JTO $CLOUD $DRIFT $KMNO are good targets. Let's see which one can attract market attention; 4. Be cautious when considering RWA targets. $MPL and $CPOOL are two projects worthy of attention; 5. MakerDAO's name change has given the market an opportunity for speculation, which may also be good for $LQTY; 6. CZ's release from prison is a good expectation for $BNB; 7. Pendle is moving closer to BTCFi; 1/ BTC ecosystem BTC The following three things are mainly related to the ecosystem:

The "market interest in $BTC staking" triggered by Bayblon is, to put it bluntly, a nesting doll;

At a time when wBTC is widely questioned, opportunities for other younger brothers: 1) Coinbase launches $cbBTC; 2) Former younger brother Threshold $tBTC has gained huge room for growth; 3) Cross-chain adoption of Stack sBTC after Satoshi Nakamoto's upgrade, etc.

P.S. In the future, competition among various types of packaged BTC will become more and more fierce, and the market may pay attention to cross-chain protocols that support native BTC, such as Thorchain $RUNE. Also, tBTC operator Threshold proposed a merger with wBTC, but I don't think it's realistic.

The Bitcoin extension network Fractal Bitcoin is scheduled to launch the mainnet on September 9. This expected market is buying orders, which is good for the BRC20 ecosystem, and runes will also receive attention at that time (not directly good).

(If there is anything I haven't mentioned, please add it)

2/ DeFi

Recently, many people have been nursing old DeFi projects, such as $AAVE (Aave's recent fundamentals are very good).

It should be pointed out that although Aave has made a lot of plans for future token economics some time ago, I think it will still take a long time to realize these plans. In addition, Aave hopes to maintain the peg of GHO to the US dollar by integrating BlackRock BUIDL.

And I will pay special attention to $UNI recently. From the announcement on August 15 that Uniswap Labs will launch a V4 security competition with a prize pool of $2.35 million in cooperation with Uniswap Foundation and Cantina, Uniswap v4 is about to be launched (previously expected to be launched in Q3). The importance of Uniswap v4 has been analyzed by many people, so I will not repeat it. I will find an article for you to read: https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/42643

I think the launch of Uniswap v4 is of great significance and is the most important catalyst for the DeFi ecosystem at present (and it seems that no one in the Chinese area is talking about it now).

It is also worth mentioning that Cow Protocol may also be aware of the threat of Uniswap v4 and is working with Wintermute to seek CEX Lists and better liquidity on the chain.

3/ Solana

The most interesting thing in Solana ecosystem is memecoin. You can check out the memecoins that English KOLs recommend on Shill. You can follow my list: https://x.com/i/lists/1795371206344130752

The second is the most profitable protocols in Solana ecosystem, such as Jito $JTO / Raydium $RAY / Jupiter $JUP / Banana $BANANA

And some other applications that have captured market attention/liquidity: Drift $DRIFT / Kamino $KMNO / Sanctum $CLOUD

Here are some tokens on my watch list

Jito - closely related to the prosperity of the Solana ecosystem;

Sanctum - LST liquidity layer, CEX's recent entry into $SOL staking is a positive for it;

Here is a more detailed description: https://x.com/alphawifhat/status/1829428266580812192

Kamino - Solana liquidity layer, accounting for 28% of Solana's total TVL.

Banana - the only TG Bot listed on Binance (except Bonk).

Here is another idea of mine: With the market's aversion to VC infrastructure tokens last time, memecoin has become the new darling of the market. When the market gradually returns to rationality, fully circulated application tokens and application tokens with a large amount of real cash income may become the next hype concept in the market (I don't mean to say that meme is bad). I hope it won't be my wishful thinking.

4/ RWA (Please consider RWA-related targets carefully)

As I mentioned in my August outlook, I like the Maple project very much. I will update you on the new progress of Maple.

1) Maple's fundamental data is growing well;

2) Coming in Q4, $MPL will be split 1:100 and renamed SYRUP. The income from the lending business will be used to repurchase SYRUP.

Another project worth noting is Clearpool, a protocol for institutional credit.

Clearpool launched a Layer2 Ozean based on RWA income/OP Stack: 1) The Gas medium is a stable currency called USDX; 2) The chain also does account abstraction; 3) $CPOOL will manage Ozean and Clearpool, and $CPOOL can obtain Ozean's sorter income.

However, judging from the price behavior, the market is not buying it.

However, investing in the RWA track now feels like joining the National Army in 1949. Please be cautious before pressing the buy button.

5/ Stablecoins

The name change of MakerDAO is inevitable when talking about stablecoins. This name change and split has both advantages and disadvantages. The name Sky is simple and easy to remember, and USDS is more direct than the name DAI, which is good for expanding new increments. At the same time, Sky has also created more adoption scenarios for USDS, such as mining Subdao tokens. The bad things @tmel0211 also mentioned, such as "USDS has added a blacklist freezing function." This has also triggered a series of disputes in the community.

It is also worth mentioning that in order to encourage migration, MakerDAO has set additional rewards.

Join early and get boosted Sky Token Rewards: https://x.com/SkyEcosystem/status/1828799015267307888

Look at it from another angle. If DAI is no longer decentralized, it will be good for other decentralized stablecoins, such as $LQTY.

6/ Others

· 9.4 $MATIC - $POL name change;

· Fantom new Layer1 Sonic testnet;

· Arbitrum Stylus upgrade; 9.28 CZ may be released from prison;

· Eigenlayer Q3 should have some major project progress and EIGEN token transfer;

· Eigenpie IDO (if you have accumulated points before, remember to participate. 3M's FDV is likely to make money);

· Berachain may be on the mainnet in Q3;

· I remember that some projects may have TGE (but considering the sluggish market, their TGE time may be postponed): Solv, Grass, DappOS, StakeStone, KelpDAO;

· Singapore Token2049 (Will it fall every time there is a meeting?)

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