If Trump wins, Bitcoin is hitting $90,000 before January: Bernstein

Donald Trump’s potential re-election could push Bitcoin to unseen highs. According to a new report from asset manager Bernstein, if he wins, Bitcoin is hitting $90,000 before January.

Trump’s promises to transform America into the “bitcoin and crypto capital of the world” are central to this projection. He has consistently mentioned crypto in his campaign speeches, making numerous promises to the industry. 

His proposals include firing Gary Gensler, appointing a crypto-friendly Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman, creating a national strategic bitcoin stockpile, banning CBDCs, and forming a crypto advisory council. 

On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins the election, the outlook is far less optimistic. Bernstein’s report says that Bitcoin could dip to around $30,000 to $40,000.

Kamala’s campaign has pointedly stayed clear of mentioning crypto, showing a potential lack of regulatory support. Over the last three years, the crypto market has been struggling with two big issues: economic challenges and regulatory pressures. 

A Trump victory could ease some of these problems, potentially setting up Bitcoin and other cryptos for a huge comeback. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said: 

“Positive crypto policies could help spark innovation and bring people back to blockchain-based financial products.”

And Trump’s efforts to win over crypto supporters are working. A new poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University shows that half of all crypto owners plan to vote for Trump, while only 38% back Kamala. 

For voters who don’t own crypto, the numbers flip: 53% support Kamala, while 41% favor Trump. Dan Cassino, a professor at Fairleigh Dickinson, explained that: 

“Trump has been making a strong pitch to the crypto community, and it seems to be working.”

He also pointed out that many people don’t realize how many Americans are involved with cryptocurrency. The poll revealed that 15% of voters have owned crypto or NFTs, which lines up with findings from other national surveys.

The poll also showed that crypto ownership is more common among young men and minority groups. Around 17% of Black voters and 22% of Hispanic voters said they’ve owned crypto, compared to 13% of White voters.

Traditionally, these groups tend to lean Democrat, but perhaps Trump’s crypto-friendly stance has changed that.

The crypto industry has become a major force in America’s politics. So far this year, crypto companies have already spent $119 million on federal elections, making up almost half of all corporate election spending.

This makes crypto the second-biggest industry for political donations since the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision that allowed for more corporate contributions.

Coinbase is leading the pack, putting up $51 million for both Republican and Democratic political groups.

The Fairshake PAC has also become a big player, pulling in more money than any other super PAC except the Senate Leadership Fund.

The industry’s spending on lobbying has exploded too. In 2023, crypto lobbying expenses hit $40.42 million, a jump of 1,386% since 2017.

More than half of all crypto lobbying spending over the last seven years has happened in just the last two years.

In 2023, Apollo Global Management topped the list, spending $7.56 million on lobbying and employing 104 lobbyists, many of whom are former government officials.

Coinbase also dramatically increased its lobbying, spending $2.86 million this year—far from the $80,000 it spent in 2017. 

Even with all this money pouring into politics, there’s a split within the crypto industry. Some industry leaders are fully behind Trump and his crypto policies, while others are pushing for more bipartisan support, especially from Democrats.

This division is making it harder for the industry to present a united front when it comes to lobbying. The Fairshake PAC has faced criticism for backing certain Democratic candidates, which has frustrated Republican supporters.

As Congress gets back to work, the crypto industry is keeping a close eye on major legislative decisions.

One major issue is a potential committee vote on crypto regulations led by Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabenow. The outcome of these discussions is very important.