ChiNext data shows traders have balanced their bets between a 50 bps and 25 bps rate cut in the last few hours
As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches, the outcome is looking more uncertain. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), traders have been betting more evenly between a 50-basis-point rate cut, which currently has a probability of about 55 per cent, and a 25-basis-point cut, which has a 45 per cent likelihood, over the past few hours. Earlier on Wednesday, a 50 bps cut was still favoured by a 2:1 probability margin, but the more conservative option of a 25 bps cut gained more support due to strong economic data. US bond yields are rising as the likelihood of a significant rate cut diminishes. The yield on the two-year US bond is currently at 3.657 per cent, compared to 3.59 per cent at Tuesday's close.
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