Solana ETF approval chance drops to 3%

Polymarket's predictions for a Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) have plummeted to just 3%, reflecting heightened uncertainty around regulatory approval. 

Since the platform began offering predictions, Solana's chances have never surpassed 15%, and this recent drop highlights growing scepticism. 

However, some industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term potential of a Solana ETF. 

Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, expressed doubt about the likelihood of any spot crypto ETFs being approved under the current U.S. administration. 

“It’s difficult to envision any additional spot crypto ETFs coming to market under [the] current administration. Nothing would indicate a spot Solana or XRP ETF is possible in next year or two given [the] current state,” Geraci stated, indicating that a shift in the regulatory landscape would likely be required for approval. 

In contrast, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, remains hopeful despite the dim odds. 

Drawing on the history of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) ETFs, Hougan noted that even Bitcoin ETFs spent ten years facing rejections before finally securing approval. 

“The first approval can open the floodgate, and subsequent victories will be easier,” Hougan remarked. 

He also emphasised that the most critical factor is resolving regulatory uncertainty. 

“From my perspective, resolution of uncertainty is the most important factor. We think those things are going to coalesce.” 

While Geraci linked the potential success of a Solana ETF to the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Hougan downplayed the election's impact. 

He believes regulatory changes will take shape during the campaign, and that Solana ETFs will benefit from the resulting clarity. 

At the time of writing, the Solana (SOL) price was $138.97.