What is the best crypto investment strategy after the Fed’s rate cut?

Original title: "Raoul Pal Reveals the BEST Crypto Strategy After Fed Rate Cut"
Original translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's note: The crypto market has performed strongly in the past week, and the Fed's policy is expected to cut interest rates to start a global easing cycle. Compared with the same period last year, Bitcoin has risen by 13%-14%, and altcoins have risen by more than 50%. Solana's market enthusiasm has weakened, and more attention has turned to new L1 projects such as Sui, and investor sentiment has gradually returned to rationality. In the future, the market may fluctuate around elections, technical aspects and macro backgrounds. ETH is considered to have undervalued opportunities and the potential for recovery in the NFT market. Raoul Pal is optimistic about the future of X Copy's NFT and digital art. The discussion also touches on the combination of NFT and meme coins and their potential to enhance the community, especially the multi-cycle value of meme projects such as Pepe and Doge, while emphasizing the importance of nostalgia and Internet culture in the NFT market.

Guest introduction:

Mando:Co-founder of Canary Labs, creator of Mando Minutes.

OSF:Co-founder of rektguy and Canary Labs.

Raoul Pal:CEO and co-founder of Real Vision.

TL;DR:

Strong rebound in crypto market:In the past week, the cryptocurrency market has performed well, and the macroeconomic dynamics, especially the changes in the Fed's policies, have triggered a market rebound, especially technical selling has become a thing of the past.

Impact of the Fed's rate cut:With the launch of the global easing cycle, the market has entered a new era of monetary policy, and Bitcoin and many altcoins have risen significantly.

Solana market enthusiasm declines: Regarding the current competition between Solana and Ethereum, it is pointed out that the Solana craze has subsided and user attention has shifted to other L1s such as Sui.

The rise and fall of the meme market: The decline of meme coin hype is similar to the decline of the NFT market. At the same time, despite the current low sentiment of ETH, there is still great potential for the ETH and NFT markets in the future under the macroeconomic easing cycle.

New L1 projects attract attention: Sui has performed strongly in recent times, mainly due to the USDC integration with Circle and the increase in market attention. Avalanche's gaming ecosystem also shows potential, especially Web3 gaming projects such as "Off the Grid", which may drive its strong return.

Quick Q&A: It is mentioned that the market is currently mainly OTC funds returning, rather than large-scale new investors entering. Despite concerns about the yield curve and interest rate cuts, the overall market sentiment has not seen a large influx of funds, and it is expected that more institutions will participate only when Bitcoin reaches new highs.

Strong rebound in crypto markets

Mando: It's been a very good week for crypto markets, how do you feel about the market?

Raoul Pal:We've been saying that September is a good time to accumulate. This week was important on the macro front, especially the Fed's developments that seemed to trigger a reaction in the market. There were a lot of big events this week, but now everyone seems to have a clearer picture. People had hoped for a rebound after getting more clear guidance, and it's clear that a lot of technical selling is in the past.

FTX will be back in Q4, and it looks like this is a well-planned Fed policy, and we may have a two-year rate cut cycle next. Although we may not immediately move to quantitative easing except in China, the global easing cycle seems to have started again.

OSF: On the last two shows I was on a couple of weeks ago, we mentioned that if you were going to enter the market, this was the perfect time. Bitcoin was barely hanging on between $54,000 and $55,000 at the time and we had a very volatile and illiquid summer. We talked about this before the rate cut this week and given the election and the base rate being between 25 and 50 basis points, the Fed actually had a lot of room to cut rates.

So I think we mentioned a few weeks ago that if you wanted to take some risk in the market, whether you were bullish or not, then that was the best time to do it. Because Bitcoin is up about 13% to 14% since then, and many altcoins and popular currencies are up over 50%. Now we have to figure out whether this rally can be sustained, and compared to previous false breakouts, we are at the beginning of an easing cycle, and the Fed has not done this for more than three years, maybe even longer. We have to understand that this is a paradigm shift, and we are about to enter a completely new era of monetary policy and global liquidity.

Fed Rate Cut Impact

Raoul Pal: This is a very beautiful chart, provided by the GMI Global Weekly, showing private and public sector liquidity in the major global economies. It is a perfect indicator, leading by 10 weeks. M2 is behaving similarly. We also see that Bitcoin has a consistently strong seasonal performance.

Let me share another chart. Bitcoin is repeating last year's move, almost perfectly. We have the macro backdrop, the Fed will continue to cut rates, other central banks will participate, seasonality and global liquidity cycles are in place.

I don't know what else is left, it seems like now is the best time, even the chart pattern shows that there are usually three touches in the range of the top and bottom, which usually works, so all the factors are in place.

Mando: I openly said on this show that I have been doing DCA for the past few weeks. But I think we may experience some volatility during the election, if Trump wins, I think we may see a fierce rally at the end of the year because other factors are in play, and the fundamentals are strong, gold is hitting new all-time highs every day.

This suggests that the divergence between gold and Bitcoin provides an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin. The negative correlation between them in the past period was mainly due to technical selling, but now it seems that there will be technical buying in the fourth quarter. This week we have seen Michael Saylor increase the supply of convertible bonds by 700 million to 1 billion US dollars, which means that he still has about 1.5 billion US dollars of Bitcoin to buy, and he will continue to buy.

This week, BlackRock said that they will tell investors that Bitcoin is the best hedge against the current US debt crisis, which further indicates that institutional demand is increasing. In addition, countries such as Qatar and Bhutan also disclosed large Bitcoin holdings this week, which shows that more and more sovereigns are entering the market. At the same time, FTX also has about 16 billion US dollars of funds returning to the market. I think the technical and fundamental aspects are connected. However, we may still have some volatility before the election, but this window is really short, and you will buy on the way up, rather than waiting for the low.

Raoul Pal: These fluctuations may occur near the top of the trend, fluctuating at the level of $70,000 for Bitcoin, and may hover between $70,000 and $75,000. However, no matter what the election results are, the market will rise afterwards, which has been proven in the past. The market performed well when Trump was in power because he was very supportive of stimulus policies, friendly to cryptocurrencies, and regulation might be more favorable. If this really happens, it may inject more momentum into the crypto market. During the last bull cycle in 2016 and 2017, the Fed did not massively ease liquidity, but just started to raise interest rates.

Mando: I think the impact of political factors is relatively small, and what is more important is the clarity of the market. I think the market will rebound even if Kamala is elected. The market always rises when uncertainty decreases, and Trump may introduce more radical crypto policies and there may be a push for crypto regulation. People are starting to talk about things like the Solana ETF, and I believe that these will come to the market, and while it may be more favorable for altcoins, the overall market will rise in all cases because the fundamentals remain strong.

Raoul Pal: Kyle Samani mentioned in his speech whether Solana is the killer of Ethereum, whether ETH is really dead, and the trading of L1 and L2. What have you noticed as the focus of the discussion in Singapore?

Solana market enthusiasm fades

OSF:I feel that the debate between Ethereum and Solana has concluded, especially with Solana's price fluctuations so significant in the past 12 months, so the topic is no longer hot. The atmosphere of the discussion is more focused on macro issues, and everyone is wondering whether this rally is real or another false breakout. This is the main focus of people. What surprised me was that everyone generally accepted that Solana might not do much in the next 12 months, and many people began to pay attention to other L1s, such as Sui.

Raoul Pal: Why has the enthusiasm for Solana waned? There seems to be no sign of any change in the ecosystem.

OSF: From my personal observation, everyone's sentiment may be due to the previous hype of meme coins, which people believe drove Solana's rebound in the first half of this year. And because the nature of the game has changed from PvE to PvP, many people may have lost money in the process, resulting in a decrease in attention. Many people have begun to focus on Monad and Bear Chain, which will be launched next year, which seems to be one of the reasons why I have become more cautious about Solana.

Raoul Pal: Monad and Bear Chain will be launched at the end of a possible bull run, why would retail investors buy them? Wouldn't it be only early investors who would sell? I don't understand why retail investors would choose to buy these projects when the market is likely to end in the fall.

OSF: This is exactly the characteristic of retail investors, they did this in the previous cycle as well, just like Salana did in 2020.

Mando: I think L1 trading has become more competitive, about 12 months ago Salana was an obvious choice, but a lot has changed in recent months. Salana's use as an actual trading asset has shifted to buying meme coins, which has changed the trajectory of the coin. Salana hasn't done badly in the last 2-3 months, but it's moving more towards payment infrastructure and DeFi, with user numbers remaining high but transaction volumes down. I think this will slow growth.

The Rise and Fall of the Meme Market

Raoul Pal: Do you think this cycle is over? Or is this just the first bounce? You can compare it to the early cycles of NFTs, what do you think? I think we have another wave of market, but it may be more concentrated.

OSF: I think this is the end of the hype of meme coins, it feels like the NFT market in 2022. At that time, you were no longer an early participant in this huge casino, the excess profits disappeared, market participants became more mature, and now there are many tools and robots to improve the trading advantage. The easiest way is to create a meme coin, internally supply it, hype it up, and then abandon it and move on to the next project.

In the early days of NFT, only a few projects performed well, but by mid-2022, new projects appeared every day, many of which were made by the same team. The novelty has disappeared and it will be difficult to recover. Unless there is a large influx of users, but I personally think this is unlikely because the potential attention far exceeds the actual participants and the attention is distracted.

Regarding Salana, in addition to price, market capitalization and circulating market capitalization are also important. Salana's circulating market capitalization is close to its historical high, currently at US$69 billion, while the highest value in 2021 was US$75 billion and the highest this year was around 80 billion. Remember that many Salana tokens are still locked, and a large number of tokens will be unlocked early next year, so don't just focus on the price.

Mando: I am not a short-term trader, but I think new wallets may not rush back in due to the strength of the meme coin cycle. While tokenized internet culture will be the main use case for blockchain, it may take some time to calm down. But I think some meme coins may continue to do well, but the craze of the entire meme culture may weaken significantly. NFTs and culture will merge into new forms, which may show up in the next cycle.

I bought a lot of ETH this week and feel that the current narrative is suppressed. A lot of people discuss the problems of L1 and L2, and see that some analysts think we are close to the bottom and there is a possibility of a rebound. Although ETH has not seen a real rebound yet, I think it is undervalued.

Raoul Pal: I want to share with you a hopium chart. Even though these charts sometimes break down when they need to the most, technically they appear to be on track.

OSF:Right now it feels like sentiment around Ethereum is at an all-time low, and if there is a general risk-on rally, ETH should perform along with BTC. But ESPDC has dropped dramatically from 0.059 before the ETF announcement to 0.04 now, mostly because the Ethereum Foundation is selling and participation is not as active as other projects like Salana. The Ethereum ecosystem is very fragmented, with many different L2s and meme coins. It feels like if someone wants to chase yield, they might choose to buy other L2s instead of focusing on ETH.

Mando:I'm not always bullish either, but from a relative value perspective, if Bitcoin continues to move lower and Salana could rally back toward a $100 billion fully diluted market cap, I feel like ETH has a lot of potential as well.

Raoul Pal: I've been buying X Copy's NFTs lately, mostly digital art, and X Copy's work has been doing very well lately, with some small editions selling for 300 ETH, which could indicate a possible recovery in the NFT market. I have a strong theory that as the crypto market's market cap rises, from $2 trillion to what I think is $100 trillion, the art market will also boom, creating unprecedented wealth.

I started buying X Copy in January and have been buying it this year. This has inspired a lot of people, and I often share my view that those culturally relevant artworks will be sought after first. But I think the market will expand again, and art is not going away. Although the price of X Copy has fallen, I think we will see a rotation, just like Bitcoin has dominated the market, as the market expands, other layer 1 and layer 2 assets will follow.

Mando: I agree that in 2021 we have seen a lot of emerging artists enter the market and have successful works released. My view is that the tokenization of Internet culture will continue for a long time to come. People will continue to buy relics of Internet and blockchain culture. What we are seeing now is that more and more big collectors are starting to pay attention to these digital artworks, which may lead to a new wave of sales.

Nostalgia is valuable, people will always look back and that emotion is valuable. For example, the price of tickets to Oasis concerts is very high now, which is converting nostalgia into money. People are willing to pay a high price for it because these cultural moments mean a lot to many people. The cultural moments of 2018, 2019 and 2021 will always remain in the memories of the participants, and the value of these works will only increase over time.

OSF: Do you think the same NFT collection activities will happen on Solana or other chains? Will it be long-lasting?

Raoul Pal:I have NFTs on Solana, but I can't see them in the same place, nor in my OpenSea or wallet, which makes me feel troubled. So I think these activities are more likely to take place on Ethereum.

OSF: Do you think NFTs and meme coins will merge at some point?

Raoul Pal: In a way, the scarcity of NFTs has greatly enhanced the status of the meme coin community. When I was discussing with the Smoking Chicken Fish team, I mentioned that they could issue the identities of priests and bishops as NFTs, and people could buy these identities with NFTs.

OSF: I think the PFP community is one of the strongest in 2021. The biggest barrier for them is joining the club. It’s hard to get people to be part of the community if the cheapest NFT is a few thousand dollars. If you have a collection of NFTs with a meme-based community, and a related meme token, that’s A plus B. I think that’s a very powerful combination because you can show off by buying a gold or rare NFT, but you only spend $1 to get into the community.

Raoul Pal: I know a lot of people are down on Bored Ape Yacht Club, but they actually have a club in Miami and we all use it when we go there. I can see the idea spreading and they’re also working on ApeCoin and ApeChain, they have big ideas and it all comes together.

Mando: What are the top three things you would recommend listeners buy? Besides X Copy, because you need $700,000 to buy that. What might be more valuable?

OSF:I still think Pepe is severely undervalued in the NFT market, and while it’s not technically an NFT on Ethereum, the original ones are rare. You can buy the original NFT from 2016, and I think it represents the biggest meme character in the history of the internet. And it’s harder to buy, which I think is actually a feature. So, owning a rare Pepe is almost the most original thing in the NFT space for me, both in terms of historical significance and cultural significance. And I definitely don’t discount Doge, if someone asked me what I would buy to enter this space, obviously X Copy has a place in the art narrative. I feel like Pepe and Doge are probably the biggest multi-cycle memes you can have, they will go through crazy fluctuations, but they will never go back to zero, and they will always retain some value of internet culture.

Mando: What about NFTs more broadly?

OSF: I feel like a lot of NFTs have been depressed, but I can see projects like Bored Apes rebounding, maybe Mutant Apes is still relatively cheap right now, and X Copy is in the most pain.

Raoul Pal: We should also agree on the value of Punks, everyone says Red Guy, but I don't disagree. I think Red Guy, MFS and Crypto Butts are works of that era and will always be remembered by culture, so they will always have value. The key is, whether it is MFS or MF tokens, I don't know if this is really valuable or just a gimmick to attract attention.

I think as long as there is an opportunity to revitalize the NFT community at the right time, it will be revitalized. Most people don't end up selling these things, they just identify with them. If I share my screen, you can see that these things will always be remembered. I think now to pick those projects that are still remembered from the last cycle but are relatively cheap, they are likely to continue to be noticed in the next cycle.

I do think these things will continue to exist, but now you really have to choose carefully, the Internet culture and crypto culture will obviously be with us, you can guess which things will become folklore, but the premise is that you must have such characteristics.

New L1 Projects in the Spotlight

Mando: Next, let's focus on the top performers this week. Do you know how L1 chains are performing? Take Sui, for example, it was trading at less than $0.5 in mid-August and has now tripled to $1.5 in less than a month and a half. I think it's close to its all-time high and the market capitalization is also increasing at the moment, although there is some dilution because it has a lot of unlocking.

This week they announced that they would integrate Circle's stablecoin USDC onto the chain. Last week, Grayscale also started to look at Sui and started to raise funds from institutional investors. It all feels like it is gathering momentum. Raoul Pal, do you think this project will continue to push higher? Will this be a game changer for Sui?

Raoul Pal: I've been thinking that maybe this is one of the projects that was chosen. The reason is that the team is very good, they have built a scalable blockchain suitable for more than 3 billion people. Their technical strength is very strong, and although the narrative was missing at the beginning, it is now gradually coming alive. In fact, they have reduced the latency of the chain to 600 milliseconds, which is very fast. They are building a data storage layer called Wall Rust, which will be a separate token, basically similar to AWS, built on the whole Move virtual machine. In addition, they are also launching Pilot Fish, which is similar to Fire Dancer and can provide almost unlimited TPS. And their business development team is very strong.

Obviously, they just signed a partnership with Circle, and there are definitely many other partnership opportunities, both in the gaming and real-world asset space. So they are attracting market attention now. It is worth noting that this project has a low circulation, and once you attract attention with low circulation, you usually outperform expectations because there is less volume around.

For other projects like Ethereum, the situation is not much different. I know people are biased against low circulation projects, you love them in bull markets and hate them in bear markets because they are very volatile. But they are successfully attracting market attention, and people are looking for the next big opportunity. Now everyone is asking if Solana's deal is over, what's next? So everything seems to fit in this project, and I don't think there are other projects that can dominate the market at the moment.

I looked at the chart of Sui against the top 20 tokens and don't see any projects that can compete with it. Only Monad and Bear chain may perform well in the near term. But this doesn't mean that projects like Celestia won't rise, but it's hard to see other projects that can outperform Sui.

Mando: It is indeed the best performer in the top 100 this week, and I remember you posted a comparison chart of it with Solana a few weeks ago, and it has performed really well during that period. Its market cap is $4 billion, FDV is $15 billion, and the unlocking volume is relatively significant. The massive unlocking has already happened and the worst is over.

I think Sui's story is more inclined to B2B, and their integration on the B2C side has been less obvious recently, especially some consumer crypto applications. However, the integration of USTC may allow their DeFi project to grow. The current total locked volume (TVL) is also huge at $80 billion, which puts it in a good position. This is a project that has tripled in a month and a half, so be cautious. But at the same time, it has indeed attracted attention and is leading among other L1s. Phantom is also a bright spot because they have some new developments, but Sui seems to be more concerned by the market. We saw a lot of people selling Ethereum and investing in Sui, feeling like they missed the opportunity with Solana.

Raoul Pal: Another interesting project is Avalanche, I just interviewed John Wu from Avalanche, he is the head of games at Term Delphi, he mentioned their investment in the game "Off the Grid", which is probably one of the best Web3 games I have ever seen, if this game is successful, it will be a big event.

Gaming has been through a weird cycle before, it was very strong about a year ago, with many different coins coming out. Today a $1 billion gaming coin was launched on the Ton network. Also, a Telegram mobile game launched by ByteDance reached a $1 billion market cap today. There is a Hamster Combat launch next week that is expected to potentially reach billions.

Mando: If that is the case, the gaming ecosystem is really strong in AVAX and we may see a strong return. Did you hear any other narratives about altcoins at the OSF conference in Singapore? Someone mentioned Deepin as the main one, but I feel like it has some integration with Grab and feels like it has the strongest momentum right now.

OSF: I agree with that. I didn't take anything away from this conference though. Usually when I go to these types of conferences, there are always some new ideas or projects worth paying attention to, but this one felt like a conference full of disappointment. Compared to previous events like NFT NYC or Consensus, it seems like everyone is focusing on whether they can rebound, and there are no particularly exciting projects.

Mando: Have you found any interesting projects recently, or projects that are early trends?

Raoul Pal: I joined the board of Club Divan, and they are launching their token today or tomorrow. For me, it’s not about the token price, but whether these things can really be used for loyalty, logistics, deep integration and all the things that are being discussed.

In the market, I am very concentrated, mainly in Solana and Sui, and even my meme currency is only Doge and Smoking Chickenfish. So I am very concentrated. My NFTs are my long-term savings investments, good things that I want to hold for ten years. If you think there is a good investment story, don’t act rashly, because you may make a mess without knowing it.

Mando: Also, one of the headlines I saw this week was about Bhutan claiming to hold $780 million worth of Bitcoin. I know you engage with different sovereign wealth funds as well as governments, advising on blockchain and blockchain strategy. Do you think we'll see more stories like this? About a week ago, Qatar introduced crypto regulation, but it was relatively quiet? Based on your conversations, do you think we'll see more adoption at the sovereign level?

Raoul Pal: I think if they do it, they will probably keep it low profile. The last thing you want to do is signal to the US reserve currency that you don't want to hold their currency and are even a little bit hostile to them. So I think Bhutan is an exception, they are recycling electricity. We know Iran is mining, I believe Saudi Arabia is mining, and I've talked to Abu Dhabi about mining using gas venting. I think there will be experiments, but I don't think there will be large-scale hoarding of Bitcoin by sovereigns.

Don't forget, the US can analyze the blockchain on a case-by-case basis, so you can't get around them. The only real way is to invest in Bitcoin miners like Temasek has done to get virgin Bitcoin, so that's the only way that's untraceable.

Mando: Do you think that with the way oil prices and many commodity prices are going, especially in the energy sector, that these Gulf countries will have a strong interest in Bitcoin as a means of diversification? I see a lot of articles about Saudi Arabia being under budget pressure.

Raoul Pal: Their payments are all in dollars and they have to be very careful with these things. They will do things behind the scenes, but I don't think we're going to suddenly see Saudi Arabia buying $10 billion a day in Bitcoin for the next 50 years. I just don't think that's going to happen. I think that's a little overly optimistic, but there will certainly be more participation.

I spoke to the head of the Australian sovereign fund and he made it clear: "I will never put crypto on my balance sheet." He said he would do other things like venture capital. I asked him why and he said: "I can't do that at the G7 meeting or the World Bank meeting, I can't do that." This shows that their attitude towards crypto is clear.

Mando: Do you think the Gulf countries will not even be allowed to buy crypto? They have to buy dollars and may not be allowed to diversify?

Raoul Pal: To some extent, they will do some covert operations in sovereign wealth funds, but these are all marginal. Don't forget that Saudi Arabia is not yet involved in this field on a large scale, they are still hesitant and the regulation is not very clear. Maybe Qatar and some other countries will make some moves, but I don't think there will be public announcements, like Bhutan has been doing low-key operations for several years.

Mando: If oil prices continue to fall, I think there may be an urge to diversify. Especially if the large shale oil fields in the United States resume production, or grow, there will be more problems with how the Gulf countries view cryptocurrencies.

Quick Question

OSF: How would you categorize the database-based altcoins?

Raoul Pal:He has about a thousand dollars worth of them. I understand the point of utility tokens, but I'm not sure how much value they can accumulate in such a large use case. If they can build a larger ecosystem and compete with standards and other data services, then this will be a valuable network. But it's not certain yet, so I'll continue to watch their progress.

OSF: What specific projects are you following in terms of deep ins and their role in the cycle?

Mando:I learned about this project from the comments of Token 2049. Singapore has started to integrate some deep insulated applications. The most successful application in the United States is the mobile provider Helium. I feel that it is growing rapidly, and currently has hundreds of thousands of users using their mobile plans, and they hope to continue to expand. If this project is successful, you will see similar projects pop up in many different countries. Basically, you can run a small network in your home, upgrade the network's 5G capabilities, and get paid in a native token. At the moment, they have very good network coverage in the United States, and it seems that they are also planning to roll out to multiple countries.

I think this is the main winner in the deep incentive cycle, there are other projects that merge AI and data storage, but this is one of the standards I think. Also, I think on Solana, they are experimenting with a version of Uber, which has been mentioned before, but it was tried in India and didn't work, and now there is a new project launched that may be interesting.

OSF: Is the return to normal of the inverted yield curve a cause for concern? A lot of people say it is an indicator of a recession.

Raoul Pal: It's the macro pessimists looking for another reason for the market to collapse, and inflation will return. This signal has been given in the past, but it didn't work. We have a yield curve right now that is distorted by things like the Fed issuing bonds, and I think we should ignore that.

Mando: I agree. People often say that historically rate cuts are a sign of a recession. But you can't extrapolate every scenario based solely on rate cuts. The last time rates were cut, did we have this crazy AI bubble and AI craze? The last time that happened, rates were at their highest in forty years, and the stock market was also making all-time highs, which has never happened before. So we're in a new paradigm right now, and you can't compare the current market situation to past rate cuts because of the impact of AI and tech stocks.

OSF: It feels like retail investors are buying back and getting as far ahead as they can, are there any signs of big money coming into crypto?

Raoul Pal: I don't see any signs, everyone I've talked to says they're not raising money right now, everyone's on the sidelines. I think the RAA network, family offices, and some institutions are more likely to come in when Bitcoin is over $80,000. The current flow of funds is just some of the money that was on the sidelines coming back, I don't see anything more. Are you seeing anything?

Mando: Throughout the cycle, I also feel like there haven't been a lot of new investors coming into crypto this time. There was a little bit of incremental growth at the beginning of the year, but it tapered off. However, I think ETFs have also sucked away some on-chain holders. Currently, Bitcoin holders and deposit addresses are at a five-year low, and I feel like a lot of money is moving into ETFs. To get people to FOMO in and hear an attractive story, Bitcoin needs to reach new all-time highs again, so it looks like people are just buying back what they sold before, not new wallets joining, but that doesn't mean they won't come in later.

Raoul Pal: For example, there was a large number of people asking in March and April, and now the market is sideways, they may be a little hesitant. I guess when we reach new all-time highs again, their conversion rate will be very high, which is a natural tendency.

Mando: FTX is also a big project, $1.6 billion is not a small amount, but most of it was pre-sold to Galaxy and Pantera, which has suppressed the market to some extent because these unlocks have expired, and some people say that the funds that actually entered the market may be only 2 billion to 3 billion.

OSF: This potential impact has two aspects. FTX's asset sales have been running in the market for some time, and the other is the flow of funds returned to depositors, some of which have also been sold. I heard that someone sold claims at 10 cents, and of course, the current recovery price is already above par. But I think the secondary market impact of returning funds to depositors should be positive, provided that not everyone sells their claims.

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