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Trump’s odds lead by 16% over Harris on Polymarket

Trump’s odds lead by 16% over Harris on Polymarket

GrafaGrafa2024/10/16 06:00
By:Liezl Gambe

As of Tuesday night, former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a 16% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris on the decentralised prediction market platform Polymarket. 

The platform shows Trump's odds of winning the upcoming presidential election at 57.9%, while Harris trails at 41.8%. 

The bet on the election has accumulated over $1.92 billion in trading volume so far.

Polymarket, which operates on Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), saw Harris leading throughout most of last month. 

However, Trump regained the top spot at the beginning of October, and the gap between the candidates has since widened. 

While Polymarket reflects a strong lead for Trump, national poll aggregates from FiveThirtyEight show Harris slightly ahead, with 48.5% support compared to Trump’s 46.1%. 

Analysts at Bernstein pointed out that traditional polls have historically underestimated Trump's performance, leaving room for varying interpretations.

Bernstein analysts also commented on whether Polymarket’s user base might favor the Republican candidate due to his pro-crypto stance. 

However, they emphasised that participants on Polymarket are likely betting real money based on perceived probabilities rather than personal biases, which adds a layer of credibility to the odds presented.

On Tuesday, Trump announced that World Liberty Financial, a decentralised finance (DeFi) protocol backed by him, sold over 610 million tokens during a public sale that launched the same morning. 

The development marks another move to connect his campaign with digital finance, an area he has consistently supported.

Meanwhile, Harris has been less vocal on cryptocurrency matters but recently released a proposal aimed at building wealth for Black men, including a regulatory framework for crypto investments that prioritises their protection. 

This move is part of her broader economic plan, which she hopes will resonate with key voter demographics.

The disparity between traditional polling and prediction market odds highlights the evolving dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, with digital platforms like Polymarket offering alternative insights into voter sentiment. 

As election day approaches, analysts and observers continue to watch how these predictions align with broader trends in both politics and digital assets.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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