Bitcoin has once again reached the key level of 70,000 three months later. What are the reasons behind the rally?

Author: Rhythm BlockBeats

For the current cryptocurrency landscape, Bitcoin can no longer be considered an asset in the crypto circle; everything else is in PVP.

On October 29, after stumbling for 3 months, Bitcoin finally stood back above $70,000. Seventy thousand seems to be a key integer, marking both the peak of the 2021 bull market and a psychological integer for many in deciding whether to enter the market. The historical highest point for Bitcoin was $73,777 in March this year, meaning that just a 5% increase would change everything.

The integer level of a bull market should have a sense of ceremony. In hindsight, what market factors could drive Bitcoin's price up?

Election Expectations

The cycle of the U.S. elections aligns so closely with Bitcoin's cycle that it was only this year that the crypto circle became aware of it. Trump's unexpectedly friendly stance towards crypto and Bitcoin has left half the industry excited and the other half fearful. He has attended Bitcoin conferences to give speeches and launched his own DeFi products, declaring "to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve for the U.S.," which has led the overall market to recognize Trump's potential victory as a significant positive for the crypto circle.

Although big players on Polymarket have shown Trump with a substantial lead, current public polls indicate that Trump and Harris are roughly 50:50. The decisive battle begins next week, and the sensitivity of speculative capital is extremely sharp. It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin's $70,000 mark has new signals this time.

ETF Inflows

ETFs received significant attention when they launched, primarily due to a large influx of new capital, which also drove Bitcoin's price to new historical highs. However, soon after, total funds in ETFs began to net outflows, and market sentiment started to decline.

Rhythm BlockBeats has been tracking ETF inflows, and the data charts clearly show that August 8 marked a low point for this phase, with funds consistently net inflowing in the following months.

Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points in September, significantly exceeding expectations, and Bitcoin responded with a price surge. The current expectation for November is a 25 basis point cut, which is generally understood by the market as a positive factor, especially since the last bull market began with a rate cut in March 2020.

Uptober

In addition to the data, there's also a sense of ceremony. Looking back to 2017, when Bitcoin began to gain widespread attention, most Octobers in the following years have seen overall increases, regardless of the sentiment that year. Historically, October has generally been a month of growth, and October 2024, with Bitcoin above $70,000, is no exception.