Analysis: Pennsylvania may become the decisive state in the final results of the U.S. election

According to Cryptoslate, on the prediction market Polymarket, Harris has a higher chance of winning in Michigan and Wisconsin than Trump. If Harris wins these two swing states, Pennsylvania will become a key factor in determining who can win the US presidential election.

On October 31st, an opinion poll released by SRSS on CNN showed that neither candidate had a clear advantage. Subsequently, in two of the six "battleground states", Harris's odds sharply turned towards her favor. Therefore, her chances of winning Wisconsin and Michigan increased by 5% and 6% respectively.

In addition, her overall probability of winning the entire election rose from 2.3% to 39.6%, but it is still far below Trump's 60.3%. Trump's overall victory rate is 22.2% higher than Harris'. Trump also leads Harris by 14% in Pennsylvania and has a significant lead in the remaining three swing states: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.