Citibank: Traders are not focused on the election, but on the US economy and earnings season
Citigroup analysts suggest that elections often have a significant impact on market trends before voting, but traders seem to be more focused on other things this year. Analysts point out that several market indicators that usually appear before the U.S. election are noticeably calm this year, indicating concerns about the election's impact on the market may be less than in previous years. They believe traders are not focusing on the election, but rather on the U.S. economy and earnings season.
Analysts say strong performance of U.S. stocks in weeks leading up to Election Day could likely be driven by robust conditions of the American economy rather than investors positioning themselves in "Trump trades" or "Harris trades". However, they note as with previous years, it is very possible for stock markets to rebound after an election. They suggest due to most companies reporting solid performances during recent earnings seasons, current market positions will likely cause a stock market rebound following November 5th voting and possibly reach new highs within the new year.
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