Goldman Sachs strategist: US stocks unlikely to enter bear market in next year

Goldman Sachs strategists believe that the US stock market is unlikely to enter a bear market in the next 12 months, as the economic recovery will continue to support the market. The team led by Andrea Ferrario believes that even considering the risks brought by the presidential election, the probability of a stock market decline of more than 20% is only 18%. After the S&P 500 index soared nearly 25% in 2023, it has risen by about 20% this year, with large-cap technology stocks leading the way. Although bond yields rose this month due to doubts about the depth and breadth of the Fed's loose cycle and uncertainty about the election, evidence of US economic recovery has allowed the upward trend to continue. The strategists wrote in the report: "The stock market should be able to digest higher bond yields as long as they are driven by better economic growth." The strategists said that although there have been signs of weakness recently, the economic environment is still friendly.