If Trump wins and fulfills his promises, Ross Ulbricht will be free and Gary Gensler out of a job

Presidential candidate Donald Trump made two promises core to the crypto audience in the run up to the U.S. Election: that he will free Ross Ulbricht and fire Gary Gensler.

It started in May, when Trump touched briefly on crypto policy during a speech, pledging to support the crypto industry and to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht "on day one.” This was something he was reportedly considering at the end of his Presidential term but did not carry out. Trump’s pledge, which led to chants of Free Ross from the audience, is a favorite cause among Libertarian Party members.

Ulbricht is currently serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole for his role in creating and operating the dark web marketplace Silk Road , a site integrally tied to Bitcoin's early history. 

“Last night, Donald Trump pledged to commute my sentence on day 1, if reelected. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. After 11 years in prison, it is hard to express how I feel at this moment. It is thanks to your undying support that I may get a second chance,” posted Ulbricht on X at the time.

Trump repeated the pledge at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in July, but many further promises pandering to the crypto crowd in attendance. Chief among them was his pledge to fire U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler on day one if elected.

The pledge saw such a positive reception that Trump noted he didn’t realize Gensler was that unpopular and made sure to repeat it. The reason why it went down so well was because the SEC’s lawsuits against many of the most successful and legitimate crypto businesses have undermined confidence in the agency.

Trump’s own involvement in a crypto project

Trump’s recent moves have positioned him even further against Gensler and the SEC. He has endorsed a crypto project called World Liberty Financial , which aims to provide DeFi lending and borrowing services before eventually moving into tokenized real estate.

The project recently opened a token sale, aiming to raise $300 million — a target it has fallen far short of — only it was limited in the U.S. to accredited investors.

“Due to outdated policies and regulations in the US, one whitelist is limited to accredited US investors and another for all non-US persons. We’re fighting for changes so all Americans can access World Liberty Financial and join the financial revolution,” the project noted.

As a result, not only does Trump want to remove Gensler because he knows it could bring him votes but he’s directly invested in a project that could be significantly boosted by more friendly crypto regulation.

Beyond this, Trump has said he wants bitcoin to be mined in the U.S. rather than China, suggesting an overall embrace of crypto. As a result, there’s a general air in the crypto community that a Trump victory would be more beneficial for the sector in at least the short term.

However, while Trump has made a variety of promises, he has a mixed record on keeping them. A BBC report found that he delivered on some promises during his presidency, including tax cuts, the Paris climate deal, military spending and cutting regulations, while partially delivering on others such as trade deals. However, it noted that he failed to deliver on promises involving the national debt, reforming Obamacare and deporting illegal immigrants.

That said, while there is some uncertainty over whether Trump will deliver on the crypto promises he made, there is more uncertainty on what a Democratic win will look like for the sector. 

What would a Harris win mean for crypto?

In June, The Block revealed that the Biden campaign was in talks with crypto exchange Coinbase regarding crypto donations. In early September, it was confirmed that Future Forward PAC would be accepting crypto donations via Coinbase Commerce on behalf of the Kamala Harris presidential campaign.

Harris made her first public statement about crypto later on in September when she said the U.S. would invest in blockchain technology under her leadership. In October, more details were provided as part of a plan to support Black men.

"Vice President Harris appreciates the ways in which new technologies can broaden access to banking and financial services," the campaign team said in the plan. "She will make sure owners of and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework so that Black men and others who participate in this market are protected."

While Harris’ plans are more vague than Trump’s, they do at least show some support for crypto in general and would be positive for the sector. Yet uncertainty remains over the extent to which the sector would benefit.

Trump’s clearer stance has put higher expectations on him, with Bernstein anticipating that his leadership would see bitcoin’s price rise to the $80,000 to $90,000 range. The research and brokerage firm has much lower expectations for a Harris win, estimating that bitcoin’s price could fall to the $50,000 level — although it previously thought it would be even lower.

Analysts have said that crypto will benefit regardless who wins the election. “I'm increasingly of the view that, generally speaking, crypto wins no matter what happens in November,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told The Block in October.

“That said, the election still matters,” Hougan added. “There is more uncertainty around what a Harris administration would mean for crypto than a Trump administration, and markets dislike uncertainty. I imagine investors would want to see if there are leadership changes at key regulatory agencies under a Harris administration before passing judgment. The added uncertainty could put a damper on crypto markets until it's resolved.”

With the world’s eyes on the election, those in the crypto industry will be particularly focused on the outcome — as it could have a big impact on prices across the board and how the industry will grow over the next few years. But perhaps nobody will be watching more closely than Ulbricht and Gensler.