America votes, putting crypto’s campaign dollars to the test

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe .

Election day is finally here. 

This morning, Donald Trump is leading on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. And if we’re looking at the good ol’ data and polls from places like 538 , then the odds are pretty even. 

We’re in wait-and-see mode until tonight after the polls close and we can start seeing how voters, well, voted. 

The overall crypto market’s stuck in wait-and-see mode too, according to GSR research analyst Toe Bautista. But the good news is that he thinks that bitcoin is “bulletproof” from whoever wins. 

In fact, it seems unlikely that we’ll see a solid rally once a winner is announced. If anything, there could be a small move if there’s a Trump win, according to analysts.

However, from an altcoin perspective, Bautista pointed out that a lot of firms have been in the wings, biding their time to see what happens to other token launches, and how the election plays out. 

“Nobody really wants to launch, and there’s not a whole lot of capital that wants to deploy when you don’t know if the company you’re going to be deploying at is going to get sued by the SEC in two months. And so … rather directionally, a Trump win … if you have…this bell curve of outcomes at least cuts off your left curve of insane risk, where Gary Gensler goes scorched earth on crypto, kind of what he’s been doing over the past two years,” Bautista said.

“If you can cut out that side of your outcome, then your expected value is much higher,” he continued, adding that it’s really only a scenario that plays out if Trump wins…and keeps to his former promise of somehow removing SEC chair Gary Gensler from his office. Though, I’ll note that our very own Casey Wagner isn’t so sure it’ll be easy for Trump to fire Gensler. 

Bautista joins Empire’s Jason Yanowitz in saying that carving out an all-time high in the fourth quarter is a big ask though Bautista isn’t going to discount a potential move to $80,000. 

It’s also not stopping him from looking ahead to the first and second quarters of next year. If the macro conditions hold and remain favorable, it’s likely to push bitcoin higher. 

“It’s very easy to see a world in which bitcoin goes to $80,000 whether that’s Q1 or by the end of the month, your guess is really as good as mine,” he told me (but his guess is definitely better than mine). Bautista is really focused on the direction of crypto, and he said that’s when we’ll see the action.

Price targets, shmice targets. Let’s see how today’s election plays out.

Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter .

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter .

Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.