After Trump's election victory, the market's sensitivity to CPI may increase
According to foreign media analysis reports, one of the main points in Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech in Jackson Hole in August was that given significant progress on inflation, the Fed's response is no longer solely focused on inflation. There are clear signs that employment has become a more important factor in determining policy. Subsequently, employment data caused greater cross-asset volatility over recent months.
However, with Trump achieving a decisive victory and more importantly, the possibility of a sweeping Republican win, market sensitivity to inflation data may rise again. The prospect of implementing protectionist policies through trade tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies could complicate the anti-inflation process. The market has repriced higher terminal interest rates for the Fed from 3.6% to 3.75%.
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