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Bitget Research: Crypto Market Oversold, Short-term Rebound Opportunity Emerges

Aaron & Tommy
2024/08/06
Bitget Research: Crypto Market Oversold, Short-term Rebound Opportunity Emerges
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

In the last 24 hours, after BTC dipped to $49,000, it entered a rebound phase and is currently fluctuating around $55,000. Following the market's sharp decline, certain sectors began to rebound quickly, including:
  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effect: AI sector, DeFi sector, and Solana sector.
  • Top searched tokens and topics: Ethena, spot BTC and Ethereum ETF, and Japan Stock Market.
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Zircuit Mainnet Festival and Kamino S3.
Data collection time: August 6, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

Over the past 24 hours, ETH sharply fell to around $2100, with BTC also dropping to $49,000, spreading panic across the market. Afterward, the market experienced a corrective rebound, entering a phase of potential rise. This rebound may present opportunities over the next few days, but there is a significant chance of the market retesting its lows. This is primarily due to anticipated regulatory pressures on crypto market makers, which could lead to direct sales of crypto assets, impacting token prices.
From a macro perspective, there are two main reasons for the crypto market decline:
  1. Global market sentiment surge: The US economy faces recession pressures, with the US stock market declining for three consecutive trading days. The Japanese stock market halted for two consecutive trading days, with the panic index VIX spiking by 27% in a single day.
  2. Regulatory pressure on crypto market makers: Leading market makers such as Jump Trading sold ETH likely due to regulatory pressures, causing a significant drop in ETH prices.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements – AI Sector (TAO, ARKM, and NEAR)

Primary reasons:
  • The AI sector has been in a downtrend for an extended period, and in a market environment rebounding from being oversold, it was among the first to attract investment attention.
  • Nvidia opened low yesterday but rebounded, maintaining its upward trend after the market closed, thereby encouraging more long positions.
Gainers: In the past 24 hours, TAO, ARKM, and RENDER have risen by 29.5%, 19.5%, and 13%, respectively.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • Nvidia's future trend: Nvidia is a bellwether for the AI sector and influences the overall market valuation of the sector. If Nvidia continues to rebound in the US stock market tomorrow, the AI segment of the crypto market is likely to sustain its rebound.
  • Impact of news: Pay attention to recent product updates and partnerships announced by projects. If an AMA is scheduled, consider positioning in related assets early, as there is a high likelihood that positive news will be released soon given the improved liquidity conditions.

2.2 Sector Movements – DeFi Assets (AAVE and ONDO)

Primary reasons:
  • Multiple liquidations occurred on the AAVE platform yesterday, generating $6 million in revenue. Following this, AAVE initiated profit distribution and repurchased its tokens to support the price.
  • ONDO, a leader in the RWA sector, rebounded from an oversold condition, presenting high potential for future narratives.
Gainers: In the past 24 hours, AAVE and ONDO rose by 21% and 20.7%, respectively.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • Project revenue: Following the update to its tokenomics, AAVE's price will change in line with the project's revenue. Market liquidity issues can significantly increase protocol revenue in the short term, which will support the price of AAVE.
  • Changes in open interest: Using ONDO as an example, the volume of ONDO's open interest started rising from a low point yesterday, indicating hot money inflows. Consider using tv.coinglass to gauge the movement of major funds and monitor futures data. Start by observing the uptick in net long positions, and then monitor the futures data for any increase in open interest and trading volume. If this is the case, it means that major players are still buying as prices rise, so it might be advisable to continue holding.

2.3 Sectors to Focus on Next: SOL Ecosystem Projects (WIF, HNT, POPCAT, and BILLY)

Primary reasons:
  • SOL rebounded by 17% within 24 hours, stabilizing at the $140 mark. The community's strong desire for short-term speculative trading has driven up the ecosystem projects.
Specific tokens:
  • WIF, POPCAT, and BILLY: Memecoins within the Solana ecosystem. Generally, when SOL rises, the leading memecoins in Solana tend to appreciate even more rapidly.
  • HNT: A leading project in the DePin sector, with its token deployed on Solana. The overall DePin sector is showing signs of a rebound, and this means that DePin assets on SOL are experiencing double positive stimuli.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

Ethena
Ethena has reported an annual revenue loss, leading to FUD on social media. Guy Young, the founder of Ethena, stated that USDe handled over $50 million in redemptions overnight, marking the largest redemption event to date without any issues. The ratio of collateral and reserves to the supply of USDe has consistently remained above 101%. Initially scheduled for release at the end of the month, the next monthly proof of custody assets will be released earlier this week to provide greater transparency to the community.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

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Spot BTC and ETH ETF
According to Coinglass, trading volume for the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached a new high since March 26, totaling $5.7 billion yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $2.94 billion of that volume. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $168.4 million, marking the second consecutive day of net outflows. The US spot Ethereum ETF, on the other hand, experienced a net inflow of $49 million, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $47.1 million of that total.

3.3 Google Search (Global and Regional)

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Global focus:
Japan Stock Market
Yesterday, the Nikkei and TOPIX indices in Japan fell by more than 8%, marking the most significant stock market decline since 1987. Today, the Japanese stock market made a dramatic recovery, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 9.7% and the TOPIX index increasing by 10%.
Regional focus:
(1) Asia: Search interests are quite diversified across Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia, featuring top searches for Polygon, Stellar, AAVE, and Solana, showing no common pattern.
(2) Europe, the USA, and the English-speaking regions: Search interests are also scattered, but tokens related to the AI sector are relatively popular. FET appeared in top searches in Spain and the USA, OCEAN in France, and AGIX in Australia.
(3) Latin America: In Brazil, the top searches include PEPE, SOL, and XLM, while in Argentina, Kelp, AGIX, and NEAR topped the searches.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Zircuit
Zircuit, an EVM-compatible zkRollup network, has officially announced its ZRC tokenomics. The total supply of ZRC tokens is 10 billion, with 21% allocated for airdrops and community rewards (7% for the first season's airdrop and 14% for future airdrops and rewards). A total of 262,200 independent addresses are eligible to claim these tokens. The snapshot for the first season's airdrop was taken on July 8, 2024.
Zircuit is backed by Binance Labs, Pantera Capital, Dragonfly, among others. Although the airdrop plan has already been announced, assets supported by Zircuit can still be deposited to potentially receive future airdrops. The Zircuit Mainnet Festival is live, and users can earn ZRC by spending gas on the chain.
How to participate in the Zircuit Mainnet Festival: 1.Bridge ETH to Zircuit mainnet via https://bridge.zircuit.com/; 2. Consume gas. Any transaction executed on Zircuit will incur ETH gas fees; 3. The gas spent and rolls earned may take up to an hour to display in your account (http://festival.zircuit.com/).
Kamino
The Kamino S2 promotion has concluded, with a total of 350 million KMNO tokens set to be distributed to Kamino users by mid-August. The rewards will be fully unlocked and automatically staked upon collection. Users can unstake without a cooldown period, and they can check their allocation at app.kamino.finance.
Kamino's TVL has recently surpassed Marinade, making it the second-ranked DeFi protocol in the Solana ecosystem's TVL and the top-ranked lending protocol. Users can deposit their SOL, JitoSOL, LST, USDC, USDT, and other Kamino-supported tokens to earn a certain APY and Kamino points.
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