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Bitget Research: Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF Approved, Short-Term Middle East Situation Significantly Influences Market Trend

Bitget Research: Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF Approved, Short-Term Middle East Situation Significantly Influences Market Trend

Aaron & Tommy

2024/04/16

Bitget Research: Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF Approved, Short-Term Middle East Situation Significantly Influences Market Trend

In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong has in principle approved the spot BTC ETF. BTC has led the market in a short-term rebound, with clear intraday trading opportunities:

Sectors with strong wealth creation effects: BTC ecosystem (CORE), RWA (ONDO, OM), and new BTC ecosystem assets.
Top searched tokens and topics: MEW, Railgun (RAIL), GCR (Legend trader).
Potential airdrop opportunities: Parcl (with a long-term incentive plan after TGE) and Karak.

Data collection time: April 16, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

Yesterday, the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong approved three institutions' spot BTC ETFs. After a 4-hour rebound, BTC tested the support level at $63,000. If BTC breaks through this level, the next support level is expected to be near the $60,000 mark. Traders are focusing on changes in the Middle East situation to respond timely to information-driven trading opportunities.

The market anticipates a potential rise in inflation, leading the U.S. dollar index to remain strong, recently stabilizing at the 106 mark. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement its first rate cut in June, with only two rate cuts expected this year. Yesterday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped by about 10 basis points, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements — BTC Ecosystem (CORE)

Main reasons: 1. The upcoming BTC halving is drawing market attention; 2. The Bitcoin mining pool Spider Pool announced it would allocate computing power to the Core ecosystem for dual mining.

Gainers: CORE has risen by 56% over the past 24 hours, with a simultaneous increase in trading volume.

Factors affecting future market conditions:

Futures data: To understand the direction of major funds, monitor futures data, especially the increase in net long positions. A rise in open interest (OI) and trading volume signals continued bullish buying, suggesting that holdings can be maintained.
Actions by the project team: Follow the project team's Twitter, Telegram, and Discord announcements. During the BTC halving period, the Bitcoin ecosystem projects are very likely to share positive news. It is crucial to monitor these news to decide whether they signal profit-taking or long-term benefits.

2.2 Sector Movements — RWA (ONDO and OM)

Main reasons: 1. Parcel, a project in the RWA sector on Solana, is about to launch its token, attracting high market attention; 2. Kraken listed ONDO, creating tangible benefits.

Gainers: ONDO and OM saw significant short-term rebounds, with ONDO reaching a high of $1, OM rising 20% in the past 24 hours.

Factors affecting future market conditions:

Changes in macroeconomic monetary policy: Macroeconomically speaking, the rise in the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds supports the fundamentals of the RWA sector. It is essential to monitor subsequent changes in the dollar index, Treasury yields, and the cryptocurrency market to adjust trading strategies dynamically.
TVL changes in projects: RWA sector projects are generally supported by TVL, making it essential to monitor the changes in this metric. If a project's TVL rises continuously or suddenly, it is usually a signal to buy.

2.3 Sectors to Focus on Next — New BTC ecosystem assets

Main reason: The BTC ecosystem continues to see new developments as the BTC halving approaches. The Ordinals founder, Casey, is set to launch the genuine Runes protocol around April 20th.

Specific tokens:

RUNES Assets: BTC core developer Casey's new asset protocol, Runes, is about to launch on the mainnet, likely to become a place for popular assets in the ecosystem.
CKB: The recently popular RGB++ protocol it developed is part of the BTC ecosystem's asset issuance protocols, contributing positively to the ecosystem's wealth effect.
QUARK (ARC-20): The project with the most number of addresses in the Atomical ecosystem, supported by a substantial community base.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

REVOX (formerly ReadON):

Originally a decentralized content distribution platform in the SocialFi sector, it announced its rebranding to REVOX yesterday, transitioning to a Web3 AI network, "a permissionless ecosystem fueling AI-powered DApp innovation via modular proxies." Yesterday, ReadON ranked second in daily active users on Polygon with 158k, just behind Matr1x. Many projects have pivoted to the hot trends of this cycle, such as BTC Layer 2 or AI sector, resulting in varied quality of new products. However, some have created wealth effects and are worth monitoring.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

Bitget Research: Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF Approved, Short-Term Middle East Situation Significantly Influences Market Trend image 0

MEW (cat in a dogs world):

A memecoin on Solana that conducted a massive airdrop to Solana phone users, valued at about $4 million at the time of the airdrop based on the market price. The token showed strong performance in the market rebound, doubling in value in a single day, followed by a listing on OKX. Given the large initial airdrop amount, it is likely that the project team has not yet profited from this asset. Therefore, the team may be motivated to pump the asset again to enhance liquidity and realize profits.

3.3 Google Search (global and regional)

Bitget Research: Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF Approved, Short-Term Middle East Situation Significantly Influences Market Trend image 1

Global focus:

Railgun (token: RAIL):

On April 15th, Vitalik Buterin transferred 100 ETH to the DeFi protocol Railgun, resulting in a short-term surge of 190% in its token, RAIL. Previously, Vitalik noted that Railgun uses a privacy pool protocol that effectively prevents malicious actors from joining and protects user privacy. Currently, Railgun's TVL exceeds $30 million. Its fundamentals may not yet be sufficient for listing on multiple prominent exchanges, and its privacy transaction attributes might also be rejected during due diligence by top exchanges. The token's trend and project development remain to be seen.

Regional focus:

(1) "GCR" becomes a hot topic in multiple Southeast Asian countries:

Legendary trader GCR (@GCRClassic on X) posted, summarizing ten core cryptocurrency investment tips and insights. GCR appeared on top trending keywords lists in countries like Indonesia and Singapore.

(2) In South Asia: "Chinese crypto coins" trended in India and Pakistan:

(3) Vey high interest in AI and RWA in Europe and America:

RNDR, FET, and TAO were top searches yesterday in Switzerland, Italy, and Canada, respectively. The keyword "RWA" also appeared in the top ten trending searches across various countries in Europe and America.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Parcl – Long-term incentive plan after TGE

Parcl (PRCL) is a real estate RWA project on Solana, backed by investors like Dragonfly, Coinbase Ventures, and Solana Ventures. It aligns with the current market trend for RWA.

Parcl has just concluded its Season 3 points promotion, with the TGE and airdrop claim checker upcoming. It will then launch the "Perpetual Points Program", offering ongoing rewards for future liquidity providers, traders, and community contributors. Based on the initial airdrop's OTC price of PRCL, providing liquidity for two months yielded an ROI of over 18%, with an APY exceeding 111%.

How to participate: 1. As before, provide liquidity or trade to earn points; 2. After the TGE, token staking will be introduced, with token stakers and Homeowners Association NFT holders eligible for additional future airdrop incentives.

Karak

Karak is an Ethereum Layer 2 restaking layer with multi-chain advantages. Backed by Andalusia Labs, a provider of digital asset risk infrastructure, it has raised $51.2 million from investors including Pantera, Lightspeed Capital, and Framework Ventures. Staking on Karak can yield "staking rewards + restaking rewards + Eigenlayer points + staked LRT points + Karak XP."

How to participate: 1. Add the Karak mainnet (can be added via Chainlist); 2. Cross-chain tokens to the Karak chain (currently supports rswETH, USDC, wETH), and stake them on Karak pools.